The Q1 2020 Miami Real Estate Report: The 10 Best Miami Condos for Great Deals

Part 4: 10 Condos in Miami that show weakened performance allowing for opportunity!

The 10 Best Miami Condos for Great Deals

This blog is Part 4 of an 8 part report in the ‘Q1 2020 Miami Real Estate Report and Forecast’. In this blog we are addressing the weakest condos in Miami primed for opportunistic exploitation or condos that are actually cheaper and better value relative to their competition. These are condos that are particularly susceptible to negotiations and negative economic impact, but they are not bad quality condos. These condos are identified by having the highest number of average days on the market for their units and the biggest discounts. These buildings do not necessarily have to be cheap, they can be pricey. Much like our more macro-based blog on the weakest neighborhoods, which are also great places to live this is a ‘drill down’ one step further to specific condos that are good condos.

Murano Grande – South of Fifth

The Back Story: Built in 2003, Murano Grande is a 40-story, 170-unit building. Back in the day, Murano Grande was one of the two best condos in South of Fifth. Sitting on the bay right over the Marina, it provides incredible west views over the bay back towards Brickell and Downtown as well as east views of the Ocean. It has had its lobby updated over the years and still today offers an excellent array of amenities and services. Units are also generous, ranging from 1,649 sqft to 4,000 sqft.

The numbers and performance: When we look through the economic cycle we saw the low point back in 2009 just after the last economic crash when the units were trading an average for $512 per sqft. It took the condo a few years to gain traction, in 2011 the numbers jumped to $558 per sqft then $659 per sqft in 2012. After this the numbers skyrocketed again, because buyers came in and remodeled units to bring them up to date with a a result that in 2015 this condo hit a peak at $1,172 per sqft. After the peak of 2015 it has now come all the way down to $595 per sqft, well below the neighborhood average of $857 per sqft. Sales have remained pretty steady since 2016, with around 12-14 sales per year.

The building currently has 33 units for sale (as of the beginning of April 2020) and 20 months of inventory. With an average asking price of $2.9M and $1,200 per SF there are going to be many corrections in order to make sales.

What lines to focus on at Murano Grande?

The 06 and 04 lines are excellent lines with great bay views. If you want a very large floor plan then an 01 line on a high floor would work best for you. The 03 line on high floors (31 to 36) is a good 3 bedroom as well with a large balcony overlooking the bay/marina and another balcony to the north. The best 2 bedroom bay-facing unit is the 08 line, because it offers more open views compared to the 10 line.

Prive Williams Island, Aventura

The backstory: Williams Island has always been viewed as its own entity. Sitting in the guard gated ‘Williams Island’ in Aventura this Island has often been praised for its complete lifestyle resort, but with high running costs which relay into high maintenance fees not every buyer has been willing to pay out. The introduction of Prive on Williams Island has broken that mold by where the building has been able to opt out of that Island fees allowing for lower maintenance fees. Prive Aventura is one of the 10 Best Miami Condos for Great Deals

Grove at Grand Bay, Coconut Grove

The Back Story: When Grove at Grand Bay was launched in the Coconut Grove market back in 2016 it was being sold at almost $1,000 per sqft with the last remaining developer units fetching over $1,100 per sqft. The building has certainly not been without its flaws. For example the large columns in the living space that created the twisting element to the architecture, but with larger units on higher floors this problem becomes less contentious. At $1,000 per sqft or even around $900 per sqft it lost out to the newer Park Grove Tower 2 and One Park Grove. For $900 per sqft you get a unit at the older Grovenor House as well, but down at $780 per sqft Grove at Grand Bay can easily hold its ground and more. Grove at Grand Bay is one of the 10 Best Miami Condos for Great Deals.

The numbers and performance: With closed sales blending out a $780 per sqft, this building is closing units in the last 12 months well under every other Coconut Grove Condo built post 2000. Only the Club Residences at Park Grove and the Ritz Carlton sell cheaper, but this latter condo was built in 2001, is looking very dated now and the maintenance fees are higher at $1.29 per sqft. In short little gets close. In 2019 and 2020 the sales came with a 7.5% discount on average.

What lines and price to focus on: With 25 current listings and 150 months of inventory, not to mention an average of 254 days on the market, sellers will be motivated. Aim for higher floors and of course corner units. The South Tower, which is located just in front of the North Tower is the better play.

Brickell Flatiron, Brickell

The backstory: This building is the last Ugo Columbo building built. Brickell Flatiron would at any other time in the economic cycle have done well; great location, fine finishes, excellent amenities. Unfortunately, timing being what it is and now combined with the 2020 Corona virus we can expect to see further reductions and better deals to be had.

The numbers and performance: Finished in 2019 just as the newer Brickell market resales (2015 onwards) softened 10% below the 2015 resale numbers. There has only been 1 sale in flatiron and interesting against the average listing price of $776 per sqft in the building, this one sold for $546 per sqft. The current average listing price per sqft in Flatiron is $776, but with such pressure from other listings this can certainly come down. Most importantly Flatiron has the second largest number of units for sale out of any Condo in Brickell with 87 units currently for sale! Consider this a pretty huge pool of options to mine a deal from.

What lines / price point to focus on: High floor units that clear the buildings in front are ideal or units on the flatiron tip with a view down the funnel of South Miami Ave (the 01 and 02 lines).

Four Seasons, Brickell

The back story: Four Seasons has always had a reputation for quality and this very much ensures the quality of service is up help. For 10 years Four Seasons has remained the most popular building in Brickell, and you might argue that this should make it one of the strongest buildings in Brickell, but if you look closely at the price per sqft performance you can see how relatively speaking it has softened a lot. Like we said ‘weak’ does not necessarily mean undesirable or to be avoided, it means weak performance relative to historical figures.

The performance and numbers: Four Seasons Brickell had its best year in 2017 where it achieved the neighborhood high of just over $900 per sqft. In 2019 the sales price per sqft dropped to an average of  $800 per sqft! You have to go back to 2013/2014 to match this figure. Sales have also slowed in recent years to just 3-4 sales per year. With 27 current listings (54 months of inventory) and the 249 average days on the market you should see motivated sellers willing to play ball. The current asking average is $1,000 per sqft, which is the 2nd highest in the neighborhood and well above market average. In truth this building stands above 90% of the buildings in the neighborhood and there is nothing generic about it.

The best lines to go for: As with most buildings go for the corners. Two bedroom units at Four Seasons are definitely different to the typical two bedroom units in Brickell. The ‘B’ and ‘C’ lines come in at around $2,100 sqft. The E and F lines are what you want if you need a bigger unit, with direct water views on either the North or East side. With 3,400-3,800 sqft these really give you a home in the sky. Definitely the cheapest Four Seasons residences in Miami.

Porsche Design Tower,  Sunny Isles

The backstory: The Porsche Design Tower definitely is one of the 10 best Miami condos for great deals. Built in 2017 this condo was introduced into the market with a huge amount of publicity, given it was the first condo tower to be branded by Porsche. The unique car lifts drew much attention and the very smooth lines of the Porsche’esque finishes was what sold many who bought from the developer. The buildings delivers 3 and 4 bed units ranging from 3,100 to 6,100 sqft.

The Performance and Numbers: Today there are 37 units for sale priced between $3.5M to $16M and we predict a number of these will now be achievable at around a 35% discount off the peak prices. We have seen a number of high priced $8 – $9M units selling for almost half the original list price.

If your budget does not stretch to Porsche also seriously consider: Trump Towers 3: Trading at around $559 per sqft (2019 data), this condo shows a large amount of inventory (35 listings as of April 11th 2020, which equates to 52 months of inventory) 191 average days on the market. It is also worth mentioning that it is currently selling as the 2nd cheapest beach front condo in the market with an average asking price of $618 per sqft.

St Regis, Bal Harbour

The backstory: Launched in 2011, St Regis offers 282 units across 3 towers. The middle hotel tower (9703 Collins Dr), and the residence towers to the North (9705 Collins Dr) and South (9701 Collins Dr). I find the North Tower to be the preferable choice as it has the best views. It has also happened to sell the most units in the last year, with 7 sales. Although the whole project offers incredible ‘Resort’ services and amenities it is important to recognize that the North Tower and South Tower will be analyzed below separately. You can see that the South Tower is definitely weaker than the performance of the North Tower.

This is also the ONLY condo to make our 10 most expensive condos while at the same time making the list as a ‘weakened’ condo. It is still very much luxury and still commands a relatively high price per sqft, but due to economic and increased supply pressures from other high level condos it no longer sells at around the $2,000 per sqft it was getting in 2015. It is now 25% off that figure, and our recent sale at St Regis North comes in well below that, illustrating a weaker market, but what still is a fantastic building that poses excellent value.

The Performance and Numbers:

South Tower: Peaking out at $2,074 per sqft in 2015, the prices  dropped down significantly to $1,474 per sqft in 2019, then $1,186 per sqft for the one sale in 2020. 2019 Recorded 9 sales and although the price per sqft was at pretty much its lowest point since the building’s launch in 2012 the value is clearly there and the buyers recognize this. In the last year there was a substantial average discount of 13.7% on asking prices

North Tower: Peaking out at $1,953 per sqft in 2016, the prices  dropped down significantly to $1,439 per sqft in 2018. In 2020 the sales price per sqft has been at $1,606 per sqft for the one sale in 2020. The reason that the sales price per sqft increased was because one of the sales was a fully furnished, designer finished Lower Penthouse which traded at a huge discounted rate of $6m, 25% off from the original ticket price of $8m.

The prices and lines to go for: The 02 and 03 lines are both very attractive floor plans. Target to pay under $1,500 per sqft. Call me for specific prices achieved, which units came furnished, which did not. There are a number of finer details to consider.

Capri, South Beach

The backstory: Capri was launched into the South Beach Market back in 2008, sales recorded from 2010 onwards. This is a boutique condo that flew pretty much under the radar in recent years and has a number of less than familiar benefits. You can live and walk to the shops and restaurants on Purdey Ave in Sunset Harbour. The building sits on a quiet section off West Avenue, with superb bay view. Factor in the fact that this building has its own Marina.

The performance and numbers: Through 2015, 2016 and 2017, units sold comfortably over $1000 per year ft. Last year units sold around $800 per sqft and in 2020 we will see them sell between $600 – $700 per sqft.

What to buy? Right now units 403 AND 1105 are the best two plays. Boat slips can be available for both these units. Please call me for details and viewings.

One Paraiso, Edgewater

The Back Story: One Paraiso certainly makes it to the list of one of the top 3 condos in Edgewater. Delivered in 2018 this condo along with Biscayne Beach now offers truly excellent value. This condo sits inside the Paraiso community of 3 other buildings and because of its community feel it feels more sheltered than other cheaper condos in parts of Edgewater that are ‘upcoming’ but have not ‘come up yet!’. This building is going to be ideal for those who want to be directly on the water, but do not want to or cannot pay Brickell prices.

The Performance and Numbers: Currently selling at around $590 per sqft, one should expect to see substantial discounts in asking prices (current sales have achieved  an average 8% discount of the LAST asking price). You can of course see discounts from 2018 resale prices, which achieved over $700 per sqft. What may not be so obvious is the deals found on some of the bigger units, some which are being sold well over $1M less than what they were originally bought for. With 44 current listings and 132 months of inventory there is plenty of choice and plenty of room for negotiation.

The prices and lines to go for: We have seen 3 bed corner go for as little as $900,000, which is undeniably one of the cheapest 3 bedroom units you could buy with a direct water view in Miami (at least based in a new(er) building). If your budget goes higher you can get into one of the very large 3,000+ sqft, 4 bedroom penthouse units for $2M. I have a clear line of sight to the final numbers for a couple of these units so please call me for details: 305 508 0899

Grand Bay Residences, Key Biscayne

The backstory: The Grand Bay Residences is connected to the Ritz Carlton on Key Biscayne and thus provides an incredible array of amenities and services. With that said it lags well behind the competition; The Ocean Towers at the Ocean Club – both Tower 1 and Tower 2 and 3 as well as Oceana which sits right next door. It is in short the cheapest and lowest price per sqft of any luxury ocean front condo in Key Biscayne. This condo belongs in this list of the 10 Best Miami Condos for Great Deals.

The numbers and performance: Back in 2016 this building was achieving over $1,000 per sqft. In 2020 there were two sales so far bottoming out the dollar per sqft to just $703. Factor in that this building has shown the most significant discounts of any condo in Key Biscayne over the last 5 years of nearly 11%, the 317 average days on the market of product and 20 months of inventory and you can see the opportunity.

Also seriously consider: Towers of Key Biscayne: Trading at just $362 per sqft!!  This condo shows a huge inventory (38 listings as of April 1^st 2020) and a very low price per sqft. With 2020 trading figures at $362 per sqft this is the lowest it has traded since 2010! More importantly it is the lowest of any condo on the Island of recent years. To put into perspective the blended average on the island for sales is $568 per sqft in 2020 and $638 per sqft in 2019.

IF YOU WANT TO BE ABLE TO BUY A 2 BEDROOM UNIT WITH A VIEW OF THE OCEAN AND STEP ONTO THE SANDS OF A QUIET BEACH IN A MATTER OF MINUTES ALL FOR UNDER $1,000,000 THEN THIS IS THE ONE FOR YOU!