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The 2024 Midyear Miami Housing Market Report and Forecast
Miami Housing Market: The Current State & Q3/Q4 predictions
Today, we are once again joined by Ana Bozovic. Like myself, Ana is an economist, demographer, and analyst who is highly involved in the Miami real estate market. With extensive experience and data-driven insights, we provide buyers and sellers with unbiased, real-world market analysis to guide their decisions. Our track record of accurate market forecasts is built on understanding not just what is happening, but why it is happening.
Introduction to this Q3 and Q4 Miami Housing Market Report
Firstly, I have been writing these reports for nearly ten years. Although this report reflects on Q1 and Q2, we take a longer-term view of Miami and reflect on the backstory of 2023, 2022, and 2021 data to explain the patterns and trends we are currently seeing.
As a ‘demographist,’ we greatly look at the human behavior driving these trends and unravel the current market psychology and how it plays out. Our reports, unlike most, include real-world applications and experience. With one of the biggest real estate teams in Miami, we observe buyers and sellers at a granular level every day. So when we get into the numbers of each neighborhood market, we explain not only what some of these trend lines reveal but how they came to be and most likely where they may be going.
The Bottom End of the Market is Disappearing
The Miami real estate market has undergone a major shift. Price leaves are soaring and many buyers are being priced out of the market. In addition, the entry-level segment is disappearing. In the most desired residential areas around Coral Gables and Coconut Grove properties are rarely available for less than $1 or $2 million.
The cost per square foot has increased significantly. For prime properties and new developments, prices are surpassing $1,000 per square foot. This increase is due to scarcity and the desirability of locations near schools, banks, and offices. In 2019, $1,000 per square foot was the ceiling for dry lots, and $2,000 was for waterfront properties. Today, $1,000 per square foot gets you a well-maintained home in areas like Coconut Grove or Coral Gables, but not a new build or a home on a large lot. The entire market has shifted dramatically.
The Top End of the Market is Shifting
We see more homes trade at $1,000 per SF+
| Top Sales Per SF | Q1 2024 Transaction Volume | 2019 Transaction Volume | Change |
| $1,000-$2,000 per SF | 113 | 15 | 650% |
| $2,000+ | 18 | 2 | 800% |
The Top End of the Market is Shifting
We see more homes trade $10M+
| Top Sales | 2022 | 2023 | Q1 & Q2 2024 |
| $10M+ | 84 | 68 | 70+ Sales |
| $25M+ | 19 | 25 | 10 |
| $50M+ | 1 | 3 | 5 |
The Market is High, Can it Go Higher?
Buyers are now perceiving property prices as exceedingly high compared to previous levels. The fact that prices in Miami are now comparable to those in NYC or LA is causing a shift in perception, leading to buyer hesitation. Both buyers and sellers are contemplating whether to wait. The market is adjusting to the new reality, but not everyone has realized this new reality yet. Buyers keep looking back at 2019 prices and sellers keep looking at 2021 prices. The rapid price increases however are slowing down, which is a normal part of the adjustment process.
While inventory is up, this isn’t necessarily alarming. Typically, an increase in inventory would raise concerns, but that’s not the case now. The upper end of the market is moving slowly as people are becoming more cautious about their purchases. Sellers aren’t always pricing their homes reasonably, hoping a wealthy buyer will pay top dollar for their property. In addition, many sellers do not know where to move to next, while looking at higher interest rates and taxes.
Property values have surged due to limited supply and a growing population. Florida besides seeing the highest amount of new residents of all US states is attracting high-value taxpayers. The influx of wealthy individuals is not just driving population growth it is driving population replacement. With a population that keeps growing and becoming wealthier, there is a lack of good-quality single-family homes. Although there is a substantial amount of condo and multi-family home construction, single-family homes are scarce. Miami is bordered by water and the Everglades so the amount of land is finite. The high demand for quality homes and the limited supply makes it highly likely that this market will continue to grow, especially those markets close to the urban core and the top private schools.
Long-Term Market Views
As much as some media like to refer to an upcoming market crash, market crashes typically occur when underlying assets can’t support debt. Florida’s market, however, is primarily supported by a strong foundation of cash transactions and high equity, rather than speculation. While there are concerns about talent and wealth leaving the state, we believe this trend is unlikely to reverse due to ongoing political and social issues in feeder states, with ongoing efforts from our local government to attract these HNWIs.
South Florida has entered the global stage and this movement is closely linked to Florida’s robust job market. Currently, Miami is the sixth’ hottest job market in the U.S., based on key metrics such as unemployment rates, labor-force participation, employment changes, labor force size, and wage trends. While many companies have announced their move to Florida, the process takes time. Of all the future large corporate relocations, two-thirds have yet to complete their move. Limited office space and school availability are slowing the transition.
In addition, Florida’s office market is thriving. Vacancy rates are significantly lower than pre-COVID levels and muchlower than in cities like San Francisco and New York. For instance, Brickell has a vacancy rate of 7-8%, compared to over 30% in San Francisco and low 20s in New York. This trend underscores Florida’s growing appeal and the permanent nature of this economic and demographic shift. The market is stabilizing around a new normal, with new upper and lower ends of the market.
The market is stabilizing around a new normal and this is happening during a period in which we see high interest rates and sales prices. However, as mentioned in one of my previous podcasts by Craig Studnicky and by Barbara Corcoran in a panel, if rates were to drop to 6%, we could expect a 10% increase in home prices as buyers seize the opportunity.
Markets to watch in 2024
Who Needs to Sell in 2024?
Schedule Time with David to Discuss the Miami Housing Market
Sources
- https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/high-earners-priced-out-of-south-florida-housing-market/
- https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article273842400.html
- https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article286929020.html
- https://www.zillow.com/home-values/12700/miami-fl/
- https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/23064/miami/population
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-miami-75-more-millionaires-110000353.html
- https://www.buysidehustle.com/complete-list-of-finance-firms-in-miami-florida/
- https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/miami-condo-is-most-expensive-us-home-sold-in-2024-first-quarter-19648356
- https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/luxury-homes/two-buyers-strike-deal-for-132-million-waterfront-compound-in-miami-beach-3f008a77
- https://therealdeal.com/miami/2024/03/08/shore-club-ph-in-miami-beach-in-contract-for-over-120m/
- https://nypost.com/2024/03/08/real-estate/a-miami-beach-penthouse-is-in-contract-for-more-than-120m/
- https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/two-buyers-strike-deal-for-132-million-waterfront-compound-in-miami-beach-062fdc3e
- https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13364237/America-NEW-wealthiest-enclave-Ritzy-neighborhood-Coral-Gables-Florida.html
- https://southfloridaagentmagazine.com/2024/05/08/100-million-penthouse-mandarin-oriental/
- https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13364237/America-NEW-wealthiest-enclave-Ritzy-neighborhood-Coral-Gables-Florida.html
- https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/latest-federal-income-tax-data-2024/#:~:text=The%20top%201%20percent%20of%20taxpayers%20paid%20more%20than%20%241,to%2045.8%20percent%20in%202021
- https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/utahs-tech-hub-powers-americas-hottest-job-market-wsj-ranking-finds-e67d0171
- https://fortune.com/2024/04/28/big-tech-billionaires-migrate-florida-miami/
- https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-moves-to-florida-nyc-real-estate-11614020268
- https://cw-gbl-gws-prod.azureedge.net/-/media/cw/marketbeat-pdfs/2024/q1/us-reports/office/miami_americas_marketbeat_office_1q2024.pdf?rev=5db9cb3ef29e4b6cb3951df99587889e
- https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/miamis-office-market-was-red-hot-now-its-tallest-planned-tower-cant-fill-its-space-b43b42ea
- https://www.axios.com/local/miami/2024/01/02/rent-down-2024-real-estate-forecast
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-09/sternlicht-says-miami-is-hamstrung-by-impossible-school-access
- https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/barbara-corcoran-says-it-is-the-best-time-to-buy-a-house/463768
FAQ
These are the most commonly Miami Real Estate Related questions
What should relocation buyers know before buying real estate in Miami?
HOME BUYERS
Relocation buyers looking at homes in Miami should understand that choosing the right house is less about the property itself and more about location, schools, and long-term value. Many buyers make the mistake of focusing on price or finishes, while the real driver of value is the neighborhood and micro-location. Older homes often represent better value, but may also be part of a future redevelopment cycle. Newer homes command premiums, but don’t always sell faster if pricing is ahead of the market. Commute time, school access, and community dynamics are critical and often underestimated. The key is to evaluate homes not just as lifestyle purchases, but as long-term assets within a very localized market.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/relocating-to-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/relocating-to-miami-with-a-family/
CONDO BUYERS:
Relocation buyers should understand that Miami is a highly segmented, building-driven market, not a uniform one. Pricing can vary significantly between similar properties depending on building quality, layout, and financial health. Many buyers assume newer construction equals better investment, but that is often not the case. Factors like HOA fees, reserves, and rental policies can materially impact long-term value and liquidity. Negotiation opportunities often exist, especially in slower segments, but require precise market knowledge. The key is to evaluate micro-markets and individual buildings, not just neighborhoods or price per square foot.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/miami-real-estate-market-report/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/new-construction-miami-guide/
What are the best areas for relocating families with children
For families relocating to Miami with young children, the most recommended neighborhoods are Coral Gables, Coconut Grove, and Pinecrest. Coral Gables offers the best balance of top schools, safety, and long-term value. Coconut Grove is ideal for younger families seeking walkability, greenery, and a lifestyle-driven environment. Pinecrest provides larger homes, excellent schools, and better value for space, making it ideal for growing families. The key driver across all three is access to strong schools and primary residential stability. Relocation decisions are less about new construction and more about long-term livability and resale strength.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/best-neighborhoods-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/what-are-the-best-family-neighborhoods-in-miami-in-2023/
Are new construction condos in Miami a good investment?
New construction condos in Miami can be a good investment—but only if you understand that not all buildings perform the same. According to the David Siddons Group, many buyers assume “new = better,” but in reality, performance depends on pricing, layout, building quality, and long-term demand. Some new developments set future price benchmarks and can drive long-term appreciation, especially in top-tier projects. However, many are priced aggressively at launch, and buyers relying on marketing instead of data often overpay.
The market is highly segmented, meaning two new buildings next to each other can perform very differently.
The best opportunities typically come from selecting the right building early or negotiating correctly in later phases.
In short: new construction is not automatically a good investment—it becomes one only with building-level analysis and disciplined entry pricing.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/independent-new-construction-condo-reviews/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/beyond-clickbait-real-insights-into-miamis-luxury-condo-market/
Why is buying a Miami condo riskier than buyers think?
Buying a Miami condo is often riskier than buyers expect because the true risks are at the building level—not visible in the listing price. Many buyers focus on finishes and views, while overlooking HOA reserves, insurance exposure, and potential special assessments. In reality, two identical units in different buildings can perform completely differently over time. Rising HOA fees and stricter regulations are also increasing the true cost of ownership, especially in older buildings. Liquidity can be affected by factors like financial health, rental policies, and ongoing repairs. The key risk is not the condo itself—but buying into the wrong building without proper due diligence.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/miami-condo-market-risks/
What are Miami's Safest Areas?
Which Miami Areas Still offer Great Value (Budget Friendly alternatives to Coral Gables and Pinecrest)
If you’re looking for better value than Coral Gables or Pinecrest, the answer (in true Siddons style) is not “go cheaper”—it’s go one layer outside the obvious markets.
The strongest value plays are:
- Schenley Park → closest substitute to Coral Gables at ~20% discount while maintaining similar character and location
- Biltmore Heights → almost identical feel to the Gables but ~25–30% cheaper on a $/SF basis
- Glenvar Heights → central location with larger lots and ~25% pricing advantage vs South Miami/Gables
- Baptist / Galloway (Kendall) → Pinecrest-style living (space, schools, land) at up to ~30% lower pricing
The pattern is consistent:
👉 Buyers are shifting west and slightly off-market to gain land, scale, and pricing efficiency. You don’t find value by going to a “cheaper neighborhood”—you find it by identifying adjacent micro-markets that offer the same lifestyle fundamentals without the brand premium.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/best-value-neighborhoods-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/miami-neighborhoods/
Is NOW a good time to buy in Miami?
Are Miami real estate prices going down in 2026?
No—but that’s the wrong way to look at it. Miami is not one market anymore, so prices are not moving in one direction. In 2026, the market is split into two: ultra-luxury, scarcity-driven areas (like waterfront and top-tier neighborhoods) are still holding or even rising, while mid-tier condos and oversupplied segments are flat or correcting. What we’re seeing is price divergence, not a crash—some properties are gaining value while others are quietly adjusting downward. Rising inventory and more selective buyers are putting pressure on pricing in certain segments, especially older condos or buildings with weaker fundamentals.
At the same time, global wealth and cash buyers continue to support pricing at the top end of the market. So the real answer: prices aren’t broadly dropping—they’re being repriced based on quality, location, and supply.
Should I buy a house or a condo when relocating to Miami?
The decision comes down to lifestyle first, investment second—and most relocation buyers get that backwards. If you want space, privacy, schools, and long-term family living, a single-family home in areas like Coral Gables or Coconut Grove is typically the stronger choice. If you prioritize walkability, low maintenance, and proximity to business districts, a condo in Brickell or waterfront markets makes more sense.
From an investment perspective, homes tend to be more stable, while condos are more building-dependent and cyclical. Most relocation clients underestimate how much building quality, HOA structure, and future costs impact condo performance. The right answer isn’t “house vs condo”—it’s which asset fits your lifestyle AND holds value within its micro-market.
How do I choose the right Miami neighborhood for my lifestyle?
Why are Miami condo prices so different between buildings?
Miami condo pricing varies widely because value is determined at the building level, not just by location. Two buildings next to each other can have major differences in financial health, reserves, HOA fees, and management quality. Buyers also pay premiums for better layouts, views, amenities, and newer construction—but not all “new” buildings perform equally. Factors like rental policies, upcoming assessments, and building reputation can significantly impact resale value. This is why price per square foot alone is misleading in Miami’s condo market. The real driver of value is how that specific building competes within its micro-market over time.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/independent-new-construction-condo-reviews/
WHY WORK WITH DAVID? THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW...
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