The 90-Day Key Biscayne Real Estate Market Update | Q3 2022

The Q3 2022 Key Biscayne Real Estate Update and Trends

The 90-Day Key Biscayne Real Estate Market Update | Q3 2022

What is Happening in the Key Biscayne Real Estate Market?

In this Key Biscayne real estate market update we discuss what is happening now, and what we expect to happen for the remaining year and early 2023. Trends began taking shape by the end of spring when we shifted from continued historic low inventory to a steadily increasing number of properties for sale. After reaching a low around April 2022, with roughly 20 homes for sale, inventory increased 45% during the summer months, reaching over 30 homes for sale in September. Although significant, this represents a bounce back to the level we saw in January 2022.

To put things in perspective, while we are now used to record low inventory levels, Key Biscayne had over three years of home inventory before the pandemic started. Fast forwarding to December 2021, homes inventory plummeted to less than two months of supply. Today, this indicator shows seven months, a clear sign of a shift in the market. Recent continued actions by the Federal Reserve may finally be impacting the Key Biscayne residential market, driving a more balanced market where buyers and sellers can move forward. This is still a seller’s market, but the trends have definitely changed the market’s dynamic.

Lack of Good Quality Homes

Everyone knows that during 2021, home sales shattered records registering a peak during summer and a total of 146 sales, over the entire year. During 2022, the Key Biscayne single-family home market registered almost 70% fewer sales than in the summer of last year, with 54 sales compared to 17. In 2022 we have seen only a few monthly sales (on average six per month). We are in the field every day, and we can say that the lack of suitable inventory has been the main driver of fewer sales as we continue to have buyers shopping for homes, but still, there are not enough quality homes to choose from.

With home sales down, and inventory steadily increasing, we start to see price reductions and properties sitting on the market for extended periods. During the last three months, the majority of the sales (70%+) were cash deals, homes sold on average for 5% below the asking price, and 60% of homes went under contract in less than two months.

Stay tuned for our next Key Biscayne real estate market update to see how inventory levels have changed and what this means for sellers and buyers.

Advice for Sellers

Inventory remains tight but easing. If you are selling, we believe fair pricing is essential right now. Particularly for the luxury segment, as the inventory of $8M+ homes is increasing rapidly.
Owners in the $5M-$8M range have a window of opportunity in the coming six months. Especially given that inventory levels have not risen and macro-economic effects are yet to hit with full force. This segment continues to show flat to decreasing inventory levels, with nine homes for sale at the end of September. On Mashta Island drive, a home trade for almost $1,600 per square foot. We believe this is the right time to list your property in this segment before inventory levels rise and macro trends hit the market.

Sellers must keep an eye on the market as we anticipate price adjustments, particularly at the top end of the market. We also advise separating premium properties from “pretenders” as almost any property coming to market is priced at a premium, record-setting price. We still have premium buyers, and these buyers may sustain premium prices for unique properties. All others will likely face reality as inventory increases and holding costs for developers and owners go through the roof next year. So, be patient but don’t hesitate to pull the trigger for fair-priced premium properties. After all, Miami’s appeal is not going away, but unique waterfront homes will continue to be scarce.

Advice for Buyers

For buyers, the market will offer more options. Prices will start to correct in some properties. We still need more inventory, as premium properties are scarce, and there has been an influx of non-premium properties priced as premium.

The $8M+ price segment has seen an increase in inventory levels, with 13 homes listed as per mid-October. This number represents double the inventory level from August (when we saw just six homes listed) and quadruple the March-July inventory level of approximately three houses. These are no longer low levels from a historical perspective. Over-optimistic pricing could drive inventory levels up to levels seen in the past decade when homes in this segment sat unsold for long periods.

Entry-level homes (<$4M) inventory on the key remains at 15 by the end of September. Well within the post-covid range of 10-15 homes for sale but a far cry from the 50+ homes available in the years preceding COVID.


These are the most commonly asked Google Real Estate Related questions

1. What are the Current Best New Condos in Miami?

If you want to hear in more details our opinions on the best new Miami new construction condos. Please read this article:Best New Construction Condos 2022-2023

2. What is the best New Construction Condo in Fort Lauderdale?

In our opinion, the Residences at Pier Sixty-six are certainly the most interesting and unique. Already well underway this 32 Acre project will be home to the first of its kind Marina where owners will be able to anchor up vessels up to a staggering 400 ft! For specifics of this project see our independent review of this project.

3. How can I compare the new luxury construction Condos to the best existing Luxury Condos in Miami? 

Our Best Luxury Condos in Miami article will prove to be very useful to those looking to compare the existing to the new. You may also want to watch this video which shows the performance of the best Condos in Miami over the last 15 years!


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David Siddons

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