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The 2018 Key Biscayne Luxury Real Estate Report
The 2018 Market Analysis for Key Biscayne Luxury Homes for Sale
A Softened Luxury Home Market
Key Biscayne luxury homes are experiencing a definitely soft market with around 50 months of inventory – not as soft as last years 60 months but still very soft. There have been just 11 sales (2 pending)so far this year, from between 1st Jan – 1st August 2018. Coming from an inventory of 64 active listings between $3m and $50m as of 1st Aug. The greatest majority (7/11) of these have been just around $3m. If we compare this to the same period last year we saw just 5 sales and 2 pending.
We recorded a slight decrease in average prices per SF, after several years of limited market movement. The lowest priced luxury properties (per SF) are seeing an increase in value while the highest priced properties per SF are seeing a sharp decline since 2015. Buyers are not paying the same top dollar per SF anymore, like they used to and the excess inventory and slow sales is definitely taking its toll.
Key Biscayne Vs other Luxury Neighborhoods
In the last few years, buyers invested in small Key Biscayne lots for massive prices per SF. Even though those lots were priced much lower in other parts of Miami, people paid the premium prices and the market spiraled almost out of control. As this market sees a lot of demand from countries that are experiencing currency difficulties, many of the buyers were drawn out of the market at the latest record prices. The Key Biscayne market offers many newer built homes that sit on a small (dry) lot and are priced between $3M and $5M. Many buyers think this is just not worth it anymore. One speculative reason for the investments made into Key Biscayne single family real estate that took the market out of sync was caused by an immigration ‘green card’ law the required certain foreign national green card holders to have to spend $450k in the local economy in order to keep their cards. The obvious and easiest solution was to spend it on their real estate and so money went on renovation improvements or new builds. Key Biscayne has long been popular with this specific category of home buyers.
Where did the buyers go is one often asked question? The answer: other luxury markets such as the Grove are now seeing more demand because they offer more value for your dollar while also offering access to top schools and are an excellent alternative at a lower cost location. When showing Key Biscayne to my buyers looking in the $3M+ market, they comment that they just don’t find the value and prefer a bigger property elsewhere in Miami. These buyers (many of which are HNWI that are relocating to Miami) are now more drawn towards the main land such as the Grove, the Gables and Pinecrest, which offer a better alternative.
I have even spoken to Key Biscayne sellers who are looking to leave the island in search for more value. They are now looking at more contemporary homes on large lots in Coral Gables and the Grove. With around 4 years of inventory we do not expect the market to recover soon. This market needs massive price corrections in order to draw back its buyers and to be able to compete with Coral Gables and Coconut Grove. When we are looking at the ultra-high end market of $10M+ homes we are seeing an entirely different situation. As this market is so limited and specific, this is a case-by-case situation. These homes are mostly located along Mashta Dr or Harbor Dr, both streets offers lots with unobstructed ocean views and are therefore rare in its kind. This kind of product is hard to find in Miami with Coral Gables only offering 42 of these lots located in Tahiti Beach and Gables Estates.
Key Biscayne Land Sales
Land Sales Key Biscayne saw one dry lot sale in 2017 and Q1 2018. This lot sold for $170 per SF or $1,275,000. There are currently 6 lots for sale ranging from $220 per SF to $530 per SF or from $1,650,000 to $7,95M. Waterfront lots start at $325 per SF or $5,8M
FAQ
These are the most commonly Miami Real Estate Related questions
What should relocation buyers know before buying real estate in Miami?
HOME BUYERS
Relocation buyers looking at homes in Miami should understand that choosing the right house is less about the property itself and more about location, schools, and long-term value. Many buyers make the mistake of focusing on price or finishes, while the real driver of value is the neighborhood and micro-location. Older homes often represent better value, but may also be part of a future redevelopment cycle. Newer homes command premiums, but don’t always sell faster if pricing is ahead of the market. Commute time, school access, and community dynamics are critical and often underestimated. The key is to evaluate homes not just as lifestyle purchases, but as long-term assets within a very localized market.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/relocating-to-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/relocating-to-miami-with-a-family/
CONDO BUYERS:
Relocation buyers should understand that Miami is a highly segmented, building-driven market, not a uniform one. Pricing can vary significantly between similar properties depending on building quality, layout, and financial health. Many buyers assume newer construction equals better investment, but that is often not the case. Factors like HOA fees, reserves, and rental policies can materially impact long-term value and liquidity. Negotiation opportunities often exist, especially in slower segments, but require precise market knowledge. The key is to evaluate micro-markets and individual buildings, not just neighborhoods or price per square foot.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/miami-real-estate-market-report/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/new-construction-miami-guide/
What are the best areas for relocating families with children
For families relocating to Miami with young children, the most recommended neighborhoods are Coral Gables, Coconut Grove, and Pinecrest. Coral Gables offers the best balance of top schools, safety, and long-term value. Coconut Grove is ideal for younger families seeking walkability, greenery, and a lifestyle-driven environment. Pinecrest provides larger homes, excellent schools, and better value for space, making it ideal for growing families. The key driver across all three is access to strong schools and primary residential stability. Relocation decisions are less about new construction and more about long-term livability and resale strength.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/best-neighborhoods-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/what-are-the-best-family-neighborhoods-in-miami-in-2023/
Are new construction condos in Miami a good investment?
New construction condos in Miami can be a good investment—but only if you understand that not all buildings perform the same. According to the David Siddons Group, many buyers assume “new = better,” but in reality, performance depends on pricing, layout, building quality, and long-term demand. Some new developments set future price benchmarks and can drive long-term appreciation, especially in top-tier projects. However, many are priced aggressively at launch, and buyers relying on marketing instead of data often overpay.
The market is highly segmented, meaning two new buildings next to each other can perform very differently.
The best opportunities typically come from selecting the right building early or negotiating correctly in later phases.
In short: new construction is not automatically a good investment—it becomes one only with building-level analysis and disciplined entry pricing.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/independent-new-construction-condo-reviews/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/beyond-clickbait-real-insights-into-miamis-luxury-condo-market/
Why is buying a Miami condo riskier than buyers think?
Buying a Miami condo is often riskier than buyers expect because the true risks are at the building level—not visible in the listing price. Many buyers focus on finishes and views, while overlooking HOA reserves, insurance exposure, and potential special assessments. In reality, two identical units in different buildings can perform completely differently over time. Rising HOA fees and stricter regulations are also increasing the true cost of ownership, especially in older buildings. Liquidity can be affected by factors like financial health, rental policies, and ongoing repairs. The key risk is not the condo itself—but buying into the wrong building without proper due diligence.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/miami-condo-market-risks/
What are Miami's Safest Areas?
Which Miami Areas Still offer Great Value (Budget Friendly alternatives to Coral Gables and Pinecrest)
If you’re looking for better value than Coral Gables or Pinecrest, the answer (in true Siddons style) is not “go cheaper”—it’s go one layer outside the obvious markets.
The strongest value plays are:
- Schenley Park → closest substitute to Coral Gables at ~20% discount while maintaining similar character and location
- Biltmore Heights → almost identical feel to the Gables but ~25–30% cheaper on a $/SF basis
- Glenvar Heights → central location with larger lots and ~25% pricing advantage vs South Miami/Gables
- Baptist / Galloway (Kendall) → Pinecrest-style living (space, schools, land) at up to ~30% lower pricing
The pattern is consistent:
👉 Buyers are shifting west and slightly off-market to gain land, scale, and pricing efficiency. You don’t find value by going to a “cheaper neighborhood”—you find it by identifying adjacent micro-markets that offer the same lifestyle fundamentals without the brand premium.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/best-value-neighborhoods-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/miami-neighborhoods/
Is NOW a good time to buy in Miami?
Are Miami real estate prices going down in 2026?
No—but that’s the wrong way to look at it. Miami is not one market anymore, so prices are not moving in one direction. In 2026, the market is split into two: ultra-luxury, scarcity-driven areas (like waterfront and top-tier neighborhoods) are still holding or even rising, while mid-tier condos and oversupplied segments are flat or correcting. What we’re seeing is price divergence, not a crash—some properties are gaining value while others are quietly adjusting downward. Rising inventory and more selective buyers are putting pressure on pricing in certain segments, especially older condos or buildings with weaker fundamentals.
At the same time, global wealth and cash buyers continue to support pricing at the top end of the market. So the real answer: prices aren’t broadly dropping—they’re being repriced based on quality, location, and supply.
Should I buy a house or a condo when relocating to Miami?
The decision comes down to lifestyle first, investment second—and most relocation buyers get that backwards. If you want space, privacy, schools, and long-term family living, a single-family home in areas like Coral Gables or Coconut Grove is typically the stronger choice. If you prioritize walkability, low maintenance, and proximity to business districts, a condo in Brickell or waterfront markets makes more sense.
From an investment perspective, homes tend to be more stable, while condos are more building-dependent and cyclical. Most relocation clients underestimate how much building quality, HOA structure, and future costs impact condo performance. The right answer isn’t “house vs condo”—it’s which asset fits your lifestyle AND holds value within its micro-market.
How do I choose the right Miami neighborhood for my lifestyle?
Why are Miami condo prices so different between buildings?
Miami condo pricing varies widely because value is determined at the building level, not just by location. Two buildings next to each other can have major differences in financial health, reserves, HOA fees, and management quality. Buyers also pay premiums for better layouts, views, amenities, and newer construction—but not all “new” buildings perform equally. Factors like rental policies, upcoming assessments, and building reputation can significantly impact resale value. This is why price per square foot alone is misleading in Miami’s condo market. The real driver of value is how that specific building competes within its micro-market over time.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/independent-new-construction-condo-reviews/
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