The 2028 Brickell Condo Cliff: Which Buildings Are at Risk and Where Smart Money Is Moving

Executive Summary

The Brickell condo market is heading for a correction around 2028, and it will not hit every building equally. Here is what you need to know in 60 seconds:

• Inventory is already high. Brickell resale has about 18 months of inventory. In September 2026, roughly 1,560 condos were for sale, while only about 600 sold in the previous six months.
• New supply is coming. Just under 4,000 new condo units are scheduled for delivery in Brickell, most of them within the next two to three years.
• The “condo cliff” math is simple. About 1,300 to 1,400 new mid-market units will compete directly with the roughly 750 post-2010 units for sale today. That is at least 50% more product in one segment.
• Six buildings face the highest risk: 1010 Brickell, Jade, SLS Lux, Aston Martin Residences, Reach and Icon Brickell.
• Established luxury and new ultra-luxury are protected. Four Seasons, Santa Maria and Bristol Tower, along with new towers like Mandarin Oriental and St. Regis, sit in a different market driven by corporate wealth migration to Miami.

Our view: If you own investor-grade product in one of the six at-risk buildings, the best time to sell is before 2028, not after.

We Called the Last Correction in 2015. History Is Rhyming.

In 2015, David Siddons published a Brickell owner’s guide predicting a major correction in the Brickell condo market. It happened. At the time, about 2,200 to 2,300 new units hit the market, most designed for investors: studios, 700 to 800 square foot one-bedrooms, and small two-bedrooms. Buildings like 1050 Brickell, 1060 Brickell and Infinity felt the pressure first, and inventory eventually peaked at about 22 months. Ten years later, Shakira Sanchez, Territory Manager at the David Siddons Group, revisited that report and found “a lot of similarities” to what is happening today. The difference this time is scale. Instead of 2,300 new units, Brickell has just under 4,000 in the pipeline. Read the original 2015 report

The Brickell Condo Market in Numbers (September 2026)

Brickell’s numbers tell two very different stories, depending on the price tier. In the investor-grade segment, supply is already the problem. As of September 2026, 1,560 condos are for sale, while only about 600 sold in the past six months. That puts Brickell at 18 months of resale inventory, in a neighborhood where up to 80% of units are rentals. Some buildings feel it more than others: Jade alone sits at about 20 months of inventory. Prices for condos under $1 million have held roughly level with 2025, much like the flat years after 2015. With this much supply, that is a pause, not strength.

At the top of the market, the story is the opposite. Mandarin Oriental and St. Regis Residences are about 85% sold at around $2,800 per square foot, and 1428 Brickell is about 70% sold at around $2,200. Established waterfront towers like Four Seasons, Santa Maria and Bristol Tower still trade at $1,000 to $1,400 per square foot, roughly half the price of new luxury. Behind that demand is corporate money: Brickell office space now leases at $150 to $250 per square foot, compared with about $60 in New York, and the professionals filling those offices want large, well-serviced homes, not 800-square-foot investor units.

What Is the 2028 Condo Cliff?

The condo cliff is simple supply and demand math. Just under 4,000 new condos are in the pipeline, landing in a market already sitting on 18 months of inventory. Not all of that new supply is a threat, though. Remove the luxury towers, such as Mandarin Oriental, St. Regis and 1428 Brickell, and about 3,300 one- and two-bedroom units remain, built for the same buyers and tenants as today’s 1010 Brickell or Brickell Heights.

History shows that about 25% of new condos come straight back onto the market for resale. That is roughly 825 condos landing on top of the 750 newer condos for sale today, an increase of about 110%. In other words, the competing inventory more than doubles. Unless demand doubles too, prices correct. The other 75% mostly becomes rentals, adding pressure on owners who rely on rental income.

Early signs are visible. Aston Martin Residences has seen considerable price corrections, and other generic new buildings have sold at discounts, especially where quality fell short of the marketing.

The 6 Brickell Condos Most at Risk

Not every Brickell building will feel the 2028 condo cliff the same way. After comparing today’s market with the buildings that struggled after 2015, Territory Manager Shakira Sanchez identified six condos that carry the same warning signs: Icon Brickell, Jade, Aston Martin Residences, 1010 Brickell, Reach and SLS Lux.

All six share four traits. They have a high share of investor owners, and investors are the first to sell in a downturn, often at a discount. Their floor plans are small, with many units around 800 square feet, which do not appeal to the end users and luxury buyers now driving demand. Several have vacant lots nearby where future towers could block their best views. And their locations are weaker than what is coming to market over the next few years.

Three of them face extra pressure right now. Icon Brickell, with about 1,800 units, has dealt with construction issues that closed pools and balconies, and tenants with other options simply go elsewhere. Jade sits at about 20 months of inventory, with elevated HOA fees, ongoing building work and the Citadel tower rising on its north side. Aston Martin Residences has already seen considerable price corrections and still has many units to sell.

The other three, 1010 Brickell, Reach and SLS Lux, are classic investor rental product. Most units are owned by investors and rented out, which puts them in direct competition with the roughly 825 new mid-market condos heading back to the market around 2028.

If you own in one of these six buildings, timing matters. Selling ahead of the new supply means competing with 750 listings instead of more than 1,500. A private valuation will show you where your unit stands today.

Brickell Is a Rental Market First

Historically, Brickell has had a high concentration of rental units, and in the most investor-heavy towers, as much as 80% of units are rented out. Downtown and Edgewater are part of the same ecosystem. Many of these owners never planned to be landlords. They bought pre-construction to flip, could not sell, and rented the unit out to cover their monthly costs. The investor-heavy buildings already show the strain, with a surplus of rental listings and units taking many more months to sell, and when amenities close for repairs, as they have at Icon Brickell, tenants simply choose a building where everything works. The pressure is set to grow. In the new generic, investor-grade towers, the majority of units are likely to end up on the rental market: typically only about 25% come back for sale, and most of the rest are rented out, because these units are not designed for full-time owners. The one bright spot is corporate relocation, as professionals moving to Miami often rent in Brickell first, close to the office, before buying in Coconut Grove or Coral Gables.

Price Tier Decides Your Risk

Most Brickell inventory is priced under $1 million, and that investor-grade segment will take the biggest hit. This is the detail most market reports miss. They are written by analysts in other cities and treat Brickell as one market. Because we also sell these condos every day, we see at least three very different markets, each with its own outlook.

The first is investor-grade product under $1 million, buildings like 1010 Brickell, Jade, Icon Brickell and Reach. This is the largest segment and the one at highest risk, because it competes directly with the new supply arriving around 2028. For owners here, selling before that wave lands is the smartest move.

The second is established luxury: Four Seasons, Santa Maria and Bristol Tower. These buildings are protected by full-time owner communities and exceptional service, and they still trade at $1,000 to $1,400 per square foot on the waterfront. That is roughly half the price of new luxury, which is why we see them as the best value of the next cycle.

The third is new ultra-luxury: Mandarin Oriental, St. Regis and 1428 Brickell. Already 70% to 85% sold at $2,200 to $2,800 per square foot, these towers are attracting a new class of buyer, driven by the corporate wealth now moving into Brickell.

Put the three-tier visual right after the first paragraph, so readers see the overview before the detail.

Where Smart Money Is Moving: Brickell’s Protected Luxury Condos

Established waterfront luxury

Four Seasons, Santa Maria and Bristol Tower are what David calls “the classic cars” of Brickell. Like a well-kept classic, they do not age the way generic towers do. Each has a strong community of full-time owners who reinvest in their homes, and some even combine units to create residences you cannot find anywhere else in the market. Add a level of service that no new building can match on day one, and it is easy to see why so few owners ever sell. That scarcity is exactly what makes them interesting today. Waterfront condos in these towers still trade at about $1,000 to $1,400 per square foot, while new luxury next door sells for $2,200 to $2,800. As more high-net-worth buyers arrive in Brickell and compare the two, we expect that gap to close from the bottom up. In our view, this is the opportunity of the next cycle.

New ultra-luxury

Mandarin Oriental Residences (about 85% sold) and St. Regis Residences (about 85% sold) are trading around $2,800 per square foot. 1428 Brickell (about 70% sold) is around $2,200 per square foot. These buildings succeed because the units are large, designed for full-time living, and come with high-level service and design.

They also look reasonable next to Miami single-family prices: $5,000 to $6,000 per square foot for beach waterfront, and $1,500 to $1,600 for standard homes in Coconut Grove and Coral Gables.

What Is Different This Time: The Corporate Migration of Wealth

In 2021, individuals moved to Miami. From 2023 to 2026, companies did. That is the one factor that separates this cycle from the last. Citadel is building its own headquarters in Brickell, with about 1.3 million square feet of Class A office space. Santander, Palantir and other major firms have committed to the neighborhood. According to our commercial partners, top Brickell office space is leasing at $150 to $250 per square foot, compared with about $60 in New York and a Miami average of $72.

Companies do not sign 15-year leases at those rates for average salaries. One hedge fund we know of starts junior associates at $350,000 a year. Many of these professionals will rent in Brickell first, then buy in Coconut Grove or Coral Gables. Wealthy empty nesters are buying now. Neither group wants an 800-square-foot unit at 1010 Brickell.

According to our commercial partners, top Brickell office space is leasing at $150 to $250 per square foot, compared with about $60 in New York and a Miami average of $72. For the full breakdown, read our analysis of Brickell’s office boom and what it means for luxury housing.

What Should You Do Now?

If you own in one of the six at-risk buildings, the message is simple: sell before the 2028 deliveries arrive. Today you compete with about 750 comparable listings. Once the new supply lands, that number more than doubles, and pricing ahead of the wave will always beat chasing the market down.  If you own investor-grade product elsewhere in Brickell, now is the time to get a realistic valuation. Take a hard look at your rental position too, because thousands of new units will soon be competing for the same tenants. If you are buying luxury, look closely at Four Seasons, Santa Maria and Bristol Tower. Prices there still sit well below new construction, and that window will not stay open forever. And if you are buying new construction, choose large, end-user units in buildings with real service. Generic product will follow the cycle; well-designed homes for full-time owners will hold their value. The figures match the rest of the article: about 750 listings today that more than double, and roughly 2,500 of the new units heading to the rental market. Each paragraph also leads straight into the valuation call to action that follows.

Find Out Where Your Brickell Condo Stands Before 2028

Not every building in Brickell will feel the condo cliff the same way, and neither will every unit. Floor plan, view line, building health and price tier all change the answer. Request a confidential valuation from the David Siddons Group. We will show you what your condo is worth today, how the 2028 supply wave affects your building specifically, and whether selling now or holding is the better move. No obligation, and complete discretion.

Request your Private Valuation by scheduling a call via this link, call ((305) 699-6641 or email [email protected]