The 2028 Brickell Condo Cliff: Which Buildings Are at Risk and Where Smart Money Is Moving

Brickell Condo Market Outlook for 2028

By David Siddons and Shakira Sanchez | The David Siddons Group | Updated October 2026

We Called the Last Correction in 2015. History Is Rhyming.

In 2015, David Siddons published the Brickell owner’s guide, warning owners about rising inventory, heavy new construction and investor concentration. The correction followed.  At the time, about 2,200 to 2,300 new units hit the market, most designed for investors: studios, 700 to 800 square foot one-bedrooms and small two-bedrooms. Buildings like 1050 Brickell, 1060 Brickell and Infinity felt the pressure first. Inventory peaked at about 22 months, and after reaching $410 per square foot in 2015, average prices stayed between $378 and $389 for the next five years. The 2008 crash showed how long a full repricing can last. Brickell condo values fell from about $424 per square foot in 2006 to roughly $228, a 46% decline, and took close to nine years to recover.

Ten years later, Territory Manager Shakira Sanchez revisited that report and found many of the same conditions: elevated resale inventory, higher carrying costs from HOA fees and insurance, and a wave of similar units aimed at investors. The difference this time is scale. Instead of 2,300 new units, Brickell has just under 4,000 arriving by 2028, and roughly 5,700 in total through 2030.

What Is the 2028 Condo Cliff?

The condo cliff is supply and demand math. Just under 4,000 new condos will land by 2028 in a Brickell market that already has 18 months of resale inventory: 1,560 condos for sale in September 2026 against about 600 sales in the previous six months. Not all of that new supply is a threat. Remove the luxury towers, such as Mandarin Oriental, St. Regis and 1428 Brickell, and about 3,300 one- and two-bedroom units remain, built for the same buyers and tenants as today’s 1010 Brickell or Brickell Heights.

History shows about 25% of new condos come straight back onto the market for resale. That is roughly 825 condos landing on top of the 750 newer condos for sale today, an increase of about 110%. Unless demand doubles too, prices correct. The other 75% mostly becomes rentals. In the most investor-heavy towers, up to 80% of units are already rented out, and the strain is visible. Prices for Brickell condos under $1 million have held roughly level with 2025, much like the flat years after 2015. With this much supply on the way, that is a pause, not strength.

Brickell Condos with the Highest Rental Exposure

Investors are the most sensitive owners to rent, financing costs and HOA increases. When too many similar units compete for tenants, rents drop, and some owners move their units to the resale market, creating a second layer of competition. The previous Brickell cycle followed exactly this pattern.

Viceroy shows how it begins. The newest condo delivered in Brickell has recorded just 37 rental transactions in the past 360 days, yet it has 71 active rental listings, averaging 105 days on the market, and more than 46 have already cut their price.

The 6 Brickell Condos Most at Risk Before 2028

After comparing today’s market with the buildings that struggled after 2015, Territory Manager Shakira Sanchez identified six Brickell condos with the same warning signs. All six share four traits: a high share of investor owners, small floor plans around 800 square feet, nearby lots where future towers could block views, and locations weaker than the product coming to market.

Icon Brickell: Icon Brickell has about 1,800 units, and construction issues have closed pools and balconies. Tenants with other options simply go elsewhere. Its size and density also make it hard for any single unit to stand out when supply grows.

Jade at Brickell: Jade already sits at about 20 months of inventory, above the Brickell average. Elevated HOA fees, ongoing building work and the Citadel tower rising on its north side add pressure, especially on the lines facing that construction.

Aston Martin Residences: Aston Martin Residences has already seen considerable price corrections and still has many units to sell. With nearly 400 units on a congested street, the valet, which is every resident’s and visitor’s first impression, has struggled to keep up. Multiple lawsuits have also been filed over alleged construction defects and the way the building has been managed, which has made new buyers more cautious.

1010 Brickell: 1010 Brickell has a significant amount of investor and rental activity, which puts many of its units in direct competition with the new mid-market condos arriving around 2028. It also depends on the line: some lines are more owner-driven and hold up better. The location is the other vulnerability. Surrounding construction could negatively impact some of the best lines in the building, and when a premier line reprices, it can ripple across the whole building.

Reach /Rise at Brickell City Centre: Reach and Rise are dominated by smaller, investor-owned units in a part of Brickell where new towers could compromise views. It will compete for the same tenants and buyers as the incoming supply.

SLS Lux: SLS Lux combines a high rental share with hotel-branded living and view lines exposed to future construction. When the rental market softens, these owners are among the first to sell.

If you own in one of these six buildings, timing matters. Selling ahead of the new supply means competing with about 750 comparable listings instead of more than 1,500.

Is Your Building at Risk? 8 Warning Signs

A building rarely becomes vulnerable because of one bad sale. The strongest warning is when several of these appear at once:

1. Declining or stagnant price performance
2. Longer selling periods and rising resale inventory
3. High investor or rental concentration
4. Persistent operational or management problems
5. Density that affects daily living, from valet to elevators
6. Floor plans that are easily substituted elsewhere
7. Carrying costs rising faster than achievable rents
8. Views that future construction may block

Two units in the same building can have very different outlooks depending on the line, floor, view and condition. A good building can still contain a vulnerable line.

Price Tier Decides Your Risk

Most Brickell inventory is priced under $1 million, and that investor-grade segment will take the biggest hit. This is the detail most market reports miss. They are written by analysts in other cities and treat Brickell as one market. Because we also sell these condos every day, we see at least three very different markets, each with its own outlook.

The first is investor-grade product under $1 million, buildings like 1010 Brickell, Jade, Icon Brickell and Reach. This is the largest segment and the one at highest risk, because it competes directly with the new supply arriving around 2028. For owners here, selling before that wave lands is the smartest move.

The second is established luxury: Four Seasons, Santa Maria and Bristol Tower. These buildings are protected by full-time owner communities and exceptional service, and they still trade at $1,000 to $1,400 per square foot on the waterfront. That is roughly half the price of new luxury, which is why we see them as the best value of the next cycle.

The third is new ultra-luxury: Mandarin Oriental, St. Regis and 1428 Brickell. Already 70% to 85% sold at $2,200 to $2,800 per square foot, these towers are attracting a new class of buyer, driven by the corporate wealth now moving into Brickell.

Where Smart Money Is Moving: Brickell’s Protected Luxury Condos

In the next cycle, value will not mean buying what has fallen the most. It will mean buying scarcity before the market fully prices how expensive that scarcity has become to reproduce.

Established waterfront luxury

Four Seasons, Santa Maria and Bristol Tower are what David calls “the classic cars” of Brickell. Like a well-kept classic, they do not age the way generic towers do. They were built early enough to secure waterfront sites that would be nearly impossible to recreate today. Most residents are full-time owners or long-term second-home owners, so very few ever need to sell. Some have combined units to create residences you cannot find anywhere else in the market. Concierge, valet and security teams have often served residents for more than a decade, a level of service no new building can match on day one.

These buildings still trade at about $1,000 to $1,400 per square foot, while new luxury nearby sells for $2,200 to $2,800. The buyer profile overlaps more than the buildings do: both want a secure waterfront position, space, privacy, service and protected views. As more high-net-worth buyers compare the two, we expect that gap to close from the bottom up. The trade-off is honest: older buildings can face rising reserves, insurance and structural costs. The strongest communities are the ones that keep reinvesting in amenities, pools and common areas, not just required repairs.

New ultra-luxury: Mandarin Oriental, St. Regis and 1428 Brickell

Mandarin Oriental Residences and St. Regis Residences are each about 85% sold at around $2,800 per square foot. 1428 Brickell is about 70% sold at around $2,200. They succeed because the units are large, designed for full-time living and backed by high-level service. They also look reasonable next to Miami single-family prices of $5,000 to $6,000 per square foot on the beach waterfront and $1,500 to $1,600 in Coconut Grove and Coral Gables.

What Is Different This Time: Companies Are Moving Wealth to Brickell

In 2021, individuals moved to Miami. From 2023 to 2026, companies did. That is the one factor that separates this cycle from the last. Citadel is building its own headquarters in Brickell, with about 1.3 million square feet of Class A office space. Santander, Palantir and other major firms have also committed to the neighborhood.

According to our commercial partners, top Brickell office space is leasing at $150 to $250 per square foot, compared with about $60 in New York and a Miami average of $72. For the full breakdown, read our analysis of Brickell’s office boom and what it means for luxury housing.

Companies do not sign 15-year leases at those rates for average salaries. One hedge fund we know of starts junior associates at $350,000 a year. Many of these professionals rent in Brickell first, then buy in Coconut Grove or Coral Gables, while wealthy empty nesters are buying now. Neither group wants an 800-square-foot investor unit. That demand flows to large, well-serviced homes, which is why the top of the market is strong while the investor tier is not.

What Should You Do Now?

If you own in one of the six at-risk buildings, sell before the 2028 deliveries arrive. Today you compete with about 750 comparable listings. Once the new supply lands, that number more than doubles, and pricing ahead of the wave always beats chasing the market down.

If you own investor-grade product elsewhere in Brickell, get a realistic valuation now and take a hard look at your rental position. Thousands of new units will soon compete for the same tenants.

If you are buying luxury, look closely at Four Seasons, Santa Maria and Bristol Tower. They offer much of the same lifestyle as new ultra-luxury at about half the price, and that gap will not stay open forever.

If you are buying new construction, choose large, end-user units in buildings with real service. Generic product will follow the cycle. Well-designed homes for full-time owners will hold their value.

About the Authors

David Siddons is the founder of the David Siddons Group, a Miami luxury real estate team with more than $4 billion in career sales. His team has represented clients in nearly every major Brickell condominium through multiple market cycles, and its analysis reaches buyers worldwide through more than 2,000 published articles, a YouTube channel with 160,000 subscribers and the Better Decisions podcast.

Shakira Sanchez is a Territory Manager at the David Siddons Group, covering Brickell building by building.

Find Out Where Your Brickell Condo Stands Before 2028

Not every building in Brickell will feel the condo cliff the same way, and neither will every unit. Floor plan, view line, building health and price tier all change the answer. Request a confidential valuation from the David Siddons Group. We will show you what your condo is worth today, how the 2028 supply wave affects your building specifically, and whether selling now or holding is the better move. No obligation, and complete discretion.

Request your Private Valuation by scheduling a call via this link, call (305) 508-0899 or email [email protected]