What Will Happen With the Brickell Condo Market in 2018?

Should you sell your Brickell Condo now or hold on to it for a few more years?

This blog focuses on Brickell, but the analysis is valid for the greater Downtown Area including Edgewater

The Brickell condo market is now seeing those price corrections we have been talking about for the last two years. Many sellers see their units sit on the market for a long period of time while potential sellers are contemplating whether to sell now or wait till the market shifts. For these sellers it is important to understand the “Months of inventory” of the Brickell market. It might not be new to you that the Brickell condo market is seeing high levels of inventory, but what many sellers (and buyers) don’t understand is what this level of inventory really means. Once you understand the months of inventory, also known as absorption rate you will be better able to understand whether you should sell or hold on to your unit.

Months of Inventory or Absorption Rate

The months of inventory tells you how fast a property will sell in a given time frame based on previous sales data. With other words, how fast will listings be absorbed by the market. To calculate months of inventory we divide the number of active listings in a certain month by the amount of properties that sold per month in a previous time frame.

The months of inventory in the Brickell Condo Market in 2018

The Brickell Condo Market in 2018. Should you sell your Brickell condo?

As you can see from the above data, the Brickell condo market is seeing low levels of absorption / high levels of inventory. Of course, the 63 months of inventory measured in the $750K range is based on the amount of properties that sold last year. If we sell at the same speed as last year it would take up to 5 years to sell all current inventory. Needless to say, today’s market conditions might change and a sudden sharp decrease in prices might lead to a new pool of buyers and a faster absorption of listings. With other words, depending on the market conditions these 63 months of inventory might be absorbed at a faster or slower pace than last year. In the last two years the Brickell Market has seen high inventories while we barely saw any price decreases.  In today’s market we see that these price drops are actually starting to happen in order to move units.

Fast Take Away

The inflated prices and extremely high levels of inventory puts Brickell condo sellers in a unfavorable position. As the market is unlikely to see a fast recovery (not within 2 years) and prices need to adjust by 15%-20%, we advise sellers to be ahead of the game and to adjust their prices now by 10%-15%. This provides for an instant competitive advantage and might result in a faster sale.

– David Siddons

Selling My Brickell Condo Now vs Selling my Condo in a Few Years

The question on everybody’s mind is whether we foresee any change in the Brickell condo market. To be honest: No. The Brickell condo surge was fed by the massive influx of foreign investors, which led to an upwards price spiral. A high percentage of these investors are now looking to offload their condos. Many have bought a generic unit above market value and because of tough competition they unfortunately might have to take a hit in order to sell. We are seeing condo units today that are listed at $600K, while their actual value is $500K at best. There are less buyers looking at the Brickell condo market than a few years ago and these buyers are not willing to pay inflated prices. With many months of (often overpriced) inventory and no increase in the number of buyers, we do not see the months of inventory decrease any time soon. As a matter of fact, the market might only get more months of inventory as the supply side is moving faster than the demand side. This means that the only way to bring back the market balance is by decreasing sales prices. 

More Pressure on the Brickell Rental Market in 2018

 

The sooner sellers will decrease their price, the more advantage they will have. Decreasing your price now will give you a competitive advantage over other sellers. In case you wait with selling till next year, most sellers will have dropped their prices, which affects your unit’s competitiveness. With an inventory of 2+ years and many units being priced at between 10% and 20% over its actual value, we expect that holding on to your unit will only have a negative effect on your sales price. This is specially true for the generic units mostly in the brand new condos. These generic units all offer equal features and many do not have water views or obstructed water views. From our own experience, as well as from what we hear from colleagues, many of these units do not even show more than once per two weeks.

Lets say you have a Brickell condo on the market priced at $600K. Decreasing the sales price with 10% to $540K gives you a massive competitive advantage (This might be less than you paid for, but that is the reality). If you keep this unit on the market for the next two years, the market will have adapted its prices in order to sell. If you want to stand out in that market you will have to lower your price even more, lets say at that point you will need a total reduction of 15% or 20% in order to sell . With HOA costs between $600 and $1000 per month and yearly taxes of approximately $10,000, each year you don’t sell will cost you an additional $20,000 (not even mentioning when you bought with a mortgage and you are paying interest)

Should we now all massively reduce our prices you might ask yourself? No, of course if you have a Brickell unit that shows several times per week and stands out in the crowd with for example a large terrace or bay views you are in another game. We are talking here about those units that are not moving, the standard new construction is seeing many of these units. They are overpriced and their sellers are waiting for a wonder that will not happen.

Be ahead of the crowd and call David Siddons today 

David Siddons | [email protected] | +1.305.508.0899

David Siddons is a top producing agent with over $65M in yearly sales. He has been the best producing Brickell agent for four years in a row. David’s ethos is “We want to help you stay wealthy by stopping you from doing dumb stuff with your money!” inspired by the best selling book “The Road less Stupid”. The David Siddons Group has warned its readers since 2014 to be cautious with the Brickell market and to use an established agent to educate you on the Brickell Market. If you didn’t take advantage of his knowledge then, please do it now!

FAQ

These are the most commonly Miami Real Estate Related questions

What should relocation buyers know before buying real estate in Miami?

HOME BUYERS

Relocation buyers looking at homes in Miami should understand that choosing the right house is less about the property itself and more about location, schools, and long-term value. Many buyers make the mistake of focusing on price or finishes, while the real driver of value is the neighborhood and micro-location. Older homes often represent better value, but may also be part of a future redevelopment cycle. Newer homes command premiums, but don’t always sell faster if pricing is ahead of the market. Commute time, school access, and community dynamics are critical and often underestimated. The key is to evaluate homes not just as lifestyle purchases, but as long-term assets within a very localized market.

Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/relocating-to-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/relocating-to-miami-with-a-family/

CONDO BUYERS:
Relocation buyers should understand that Miami is a highly segmented, building-driven market, not a uniform one. Pricing can vary significantly between similar properties depending on building quality, layout, and financial health. Many buyers assume newer construction equals better investment, but that is often not the case. Factors like HOA fees, reserves, and rental policies can materially impact long-term value and liquidity. Negotiation opportunities often exist, especially in slower segments, but require precise market knowledge. The key is to evaluate micro-markets and individual buildings, not just neighborhoods or price per square foot.

Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/miami-real-estate-market-report/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/new-construction-miami-guide/

What are the best areas for relocating families with children

For families relocating to Miami with young children, the most recommended neighborhoods are Coral Gables, Coconut Grove, and Pinecrest. Coral Gables offers the best balance of top schools, safety, and long-term value. Coconut Grove is ideal for younger families seeking walkability, greenery, and a lifestyle-driven environment. Pinecrest provides larger homes, excellent schools, and better value for space, making it ideal for growing families. The key driver across all three is access to strong schools and primary residential stability. Relocation decisions are less about new construction and more about long-term livability and resale strength.

Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/best-neighborhoods-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/what-are-the-best-family-neighborhoods-in-miami-in-2023/

Are new construction condos in Miami a good investment?

New construction condos in Miami can be a good investment—but only if you understand that not all buildings perform the same. According to the David Siddons Group, many buyers assume “new = better,” but in reality, performance depends on pricing, layout, building quality, and long-term demand.  Some new developments set future price benchmarks and can drive long-term appreciation, especially in top-tier projects.  However, many are priced aggressively at launch, and buyers relying on marketing instead of data often overpay.
The market is highly segmented, meaning two new buildings next to each other can perform very differently.
The best opportunities typically come from selecting the right building early or negotiating correctly in later phases.
In short: new construction is not automatically a good investment—it becomes one only with building-level analysis and disciplined entry pricing.

Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/independent-new-construction-condo-reviews/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/beyond-clickbait-real-insights-into-miamis-luxury-condo-market/

Why is buying a Miami condo riskier than buyers think?

Buying a Miami condo is often riskier than buyers expect because the true risks are at the building level—not visible in the listing price. Many buyers focus on finishes and views, while overlooking HOA reserves, insurance exposure, and potential special assessments. In reality, two identical units in different buildings can perform completely differently over time. Rising HOA fees and stricter regulations are also increasing the true cost of ownership, especially in older buildings. Liquidity can be affected by factors like financial health, rental policies, and ongoing repairs. The key risk is not the condo itself—but buying into the wrong building without proper due diligence.

Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/miami-condo-market-risks/

What are Miami's Safest Areas?

The safest areas in Miami are typically Coral Gables, Coconut Grove, Pinecrest, Key Biscayne, and Ponce-Davis. These neighborhoods stand out due to low density, strong community presence, and high concentration of full-time residents, which directly impacts safety. In Miami, safety is highly localized, meaning micro-location and specific streets matter more than zip codes. Areas with top schools and family-driven demand tend to maintain stronger safety profiles over time. Gated communities and low-traffic residential streets further enhance security. Ultimately, the safest areas are defined less by price and more by stability, schools, and residential character.

Which Miami Areas Still offer Great Value (Budget Friendly alternatives to Coral Gables and Pinecrest)

If you’re looking for better value than Coral Gables or Pinecrest, the answer (in true Siddons style) is not “go cheaper”—it’s go one layer outside the obvious markets.

The strongest value plays are:

  • Schenley Park → closest substitute to Coral Gables at ~20% discount while maintaining similar character and location
  • Biltmore Heights → almost identical feel to the Gables but ~25–30% cheaper on a $/SF basis
  • Glenvar Heights → central location with larger lots and ~25% pricing advantage vs South Miami/Gables
  • Baptist / Galloway (Kendall) → Pinecrest-style living (space, schools, land) at up to ~30% lower pricing

The pattern is consistent:
👉 Buyers are shifting west and slightly off-market to gain land, scale, and pricing efficiency. You don’t find value by going to a “cheaper neighborhood”—you find it by identifying adjacent micro-markets that offer the same lifestyle fundamentals without the brand premium.

Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/best-value-neighborhoods-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/miami-neighborhoods/

Is NOW a good time to buy in Miami?

In 2026, the answer is yes—but only if you understand what part of the market you’re buying into. Miami is no longer one market; it has split into multiple segments behaving very differently. From a David Siddons perspective, this is a selective buyer’s window, not a broad “good time” headline. Some segments—especially condos with rising inventory—are offering negotiation opportunities and better entry points. 

At the same time, prime single-family homes and top-tier new construction continue to hold value or even trade near record levels.

Buyers who rely on timing the market often miss the point—success in Miami today comes from selecting the right micro-market and asset, not waiting for a crash.  If you are disciplined on pricing, building quality, and location, this market offers opportunity. If you are not, it is easy to overpay. 2026 is a good time to buy in Miami for informed buyers—because the market is fragmented, negotiation exists, and strategy matters more than ever.

Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/miami-real-estate-market-report-q1-2026/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/market-reports/

Are Miami real estate prices going down in 2026?

No—but that’s the wrong way to look at it. Miami is not one market anymore, so prices are not moving in one direction. In 2026, the market is split into two: ultra-luxury, scarcity-driven areas (like waterfront and top-tier neighborhoods) are still holding or even rising, while mid-tier condos and oversupplied segments are flat or correcting. What we’re seeing is price divergence, not a crash—some properties are gaining value while others are quietly adjusting downward. Rising inventory and more selective buyers are putting pressure on pricing in certain segments, especially older condos or buildings with weaker fundamentals.
At the same time, global wealth and cash buyers continue to support pricing at the top end of the market. So the real answer: prices aren’t broadly dropping—they’re being repriced based on quality, location, and supply.

Miami Real Estate Market Report Q1 2026

Should I buy a house or a condo when relocating to Miami?

The decision comes down to lifestyle first, investment second—and most relocation buyers get that backwards. If you want space, privacy, schools, and long-term family living, a single-family home in areas like Coral Gables or Coconut Grove is typically the stronger choice. If you prioritize walkability, low maintenance, and proximity to business districts, a condo in Brickell or waterfront markets makes more sense.
From an investment perspective, homes tend to be more stable, while condos are more building-dependent and cyclical. Most relocation clients underestimate how much building quality, HOA structure, and future costs impact condo performance. The right answer isn’t “house vs condo”—it’s which asset fits your lifestyle AND holds value within its micro-market.

 

 How do I choose the right Miami neighborhood for my lifestyle?

Choosing the right neighborhood in Miami comes down to how you live day-to-day, not just where prices are. Relocation buyers should first define priorities: walkability, schools, commute, or waterfront lifestyle.
For example, Coconut Grove fits walkable, family-oriented living, while Brickell suits urban, high-rise lifestyles. Buyers often make the mistake of focusing on price per square foot instead of lifestyle fit and long-term livability. Each neighborhood operates like its own micro-market, so the “best” area depends on your daily routine and long-term goals. The key is to align lifestyle, location, and market fundamentals, not just aesthetics or newness.


https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/best-neighborhoods-miami/

Why are Miami condo prices so different between buildings?

Miami condo pricing varies widely because value is determined at the building level, not just by location. Two buildings next to each other can have major differences in financial health, reserves, HOA fees, and management quality. Buyers also pay premiums for better layouts, views, amenities, and newer construction—but not all “new” buildings perform equally. Factors like rental policies, upcoming assessments, and building reputation can significantly impact resale value. This is why price per square foot alone is misleading in Miami’s condo market. The real driver of value is how that specific building competes within its micro-market over time.

Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/independent-new-construction-condo-reviews/

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