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The Miami Beach Condo Market Report for Q4 2020 | What to Expect Going into 2021?
Miami Beach Condos for Sale | What to Expect Going into 2021?
If you read part 2 of our Q2 and Q3 Miami real estate report (The Miami Condo Market before and during Covid-19) you already know that the Miami condo market has experienced high inventory levels for several years. Even before Corona we saw declined transaction volumes and an abundance of overpriced condo units sitting on the market without movement. As always there are better performing sub-markets or price levels, but across the board the condo market was not a very strong market. Covid-19 accelerated the patterns we were already seeing in the market, which created a bearish outlook.
If you want to know how Miami Beach condos performed before and during the initial months of Covid-19 we suggest you read part 2 of our report. This Miami Beach condo market report discusses the performance of Miami Beach condos in the last 6 months and what we expect going into 2021!
Should you stay away from this market? No, even in a weak market there are good opportunities and there is “the right price”. I rather warn my readers and clients about what is really happening in the market than to pretend all Miami investments are safe. I highlight markets with high inventory and downward prices, but that doesn’t mean one should not buy. There is actually a lot of opportunity out there and the time to make great deals is now! Key in this process is to get the right guidance and to know at what price point to buy.

This beautiful unit at Faena House sold for 25% less than its original listing price of $15.5M
Miami Beach Condo Market Report for Q4 2020
Miami is seeing a high influx of new residents (and thus buyers) mostly for its favorable tax climate. Although many of these relocation buyers are looking for single-family homes, we have also experienced a healthy demand for Miami Beach condos. Compared to our previous study that looked mostly into Q2 and Q3 of this year (more focusing on the market at the start/peak of the pandemic) we see that in Q3 and Q4 the Miami Beach Condo Market is catching up again. In the below table we show the amount of closed sales in the last half a year and compare that to 2019 and it does not show the same gap as we saw comparing Q2/Q3 with the previous year. Of course buyers are able to fly into Miami again and the condos have opened up again. The fact that nobody was allowed into condos was the condo market’s achilles heel.
We see a very strong luxury market, which is nothing new at this point in 2020. Most tax refugees flocking into Miami are power players that are looking for the best of the best and therefore luxury sales have gained in strength. We saw 3 sales in the $10M+ market with very high sales prices per SF averaging at $3,455 per SF. Prices remained relatively stable compared to the same period a year earlier, with the exception of prices in the $2M-$3M range. The $1M-$2M range seems to be gaining in strength as well, as sales are up and inventory is down.
Maybe the most important table here is the one with the months of inventory. The months of inventory provide you with information about the supply and demand relationship or the absorption rate of a market. The months indicated here are the months it will take to sell all available product if no new product were to enter the market. Between 6 and 9 months is generally considered a neutral or balanced market while less than 6 is a sellers market and more than 9 a buyers market. The Miami Beach condo market is experiencing a high inventory, mostly in the range between $2M and $10M. The more affordable sub-markets as well as the ultra-luxury market is experiencing a healthier inventory.

The Miami Beach Condo Market Report; Transaction volumes in Q3 and Q4 of 2019 compared to 2020

The Miami Beach Condo Market Report; Prices per SF in Q3 and Q4 of 2019 compared to 2020

The Miami Beach Condo Market Report; Discounts on the sales price in Q3 and Q4 of 2019 compared to 2020

The Miami Beach Condo Market Report; Months of inventory in Q3 and Q4 of 2019 compared to 2020
The Miami Beach Condo Market in 2021
As we are approaching 2021 we have become more bullish about the Miami Beach condo market specially for the $1M-$2M range and the $10M+ range. For buyers in the $3M-$5M range we see a lot of opportunity as some great gems can be bought with considerable discounts. With a continuous flow of tax migrants mostly from NYC, New Jersey, Chicago and San Francisco we expect the demand for good product to remain strong, although most of these buyers are looking for large, newer, ocean facing condos. We expect good-quality units in desired buildings such as 87 Park, Faena House and Continuum to remain strong over 2021. We do get a fair share of inquiries for Miami Beach condos for sale and most of these buyers are looking for good deals, which they often get. This market is excellent to get top product for a discounted price and savvy buyers know it! Besides that, the single-family home market is drying up fast and those who are indecisive between a home or a condo often opt for a condo now, as the supply of good quality homes is limited. 2021 Will be a better year for the Miami Beach condo market for sure.
Miami Beach Condo Investments: At What Price Should You Buy?
When buying a Miami Beach condo it very important to know at what price point you should buy. Miami’s economic cycle started to rise in 2010 after the recession years of 2007 and 2008. In 2010 Miami’s real estate market boomed and we saw an aggressive rise in prices towards 2015. Depending on the neighborhood we are talking about, the general peak was near the end of 2015 and start of 2016. This is essential to know in order to establish the price range we will need to work with. We have to look at the base and the peak of the previous cycle to see the baseline of this cycle and to establish how much range we have. You do not want to pay peak prices (2015-2016 prices) in today’s market for an average condo. As we are currently on the downturn of the condo cycle, we look at 2012 as a baseline. The price levels of 2012 should give us a good guide of how much one should want to pay in 2021. You need to make sure you do not pay more than the 2012 baseline prices.
Condo Geeks
With the help of our brand new condo geeks tool you can trace back these condo cycles for different neighborhoods and price ranges. In the screenshots shown below you see the condo cycles for Miami Beach condos in different price ranges. For all markets we see that the 2012 baseline prices have been reached or are about to be reached and one should not pay much more than these prices (depending of course on what line in what condo you buy). In the last screen, which shows active data for Miami Beach condos, you can see see which condos have most inventory and in which condo the units stay longest on the market. Contact David Siddons if you would like to get more information about this tool or would like to ask more specific questions regarding the Miami Condo market for which our Condo Geeks tool might be able to help.
Go to Condo Geeks or contact David Siddons for a quick update on the tool and the market.
Miami Beach Condo Market Report: Which Miami Beach Condos sold in 2020?
Please find below several Miami Beach condos that closed in the last year to get a better glimpse of what is selling!
Unit 810 at Murano at Portofino closed for $1,290,000 or $833 per SF. It was originally listed for $1,495,000
The David Siddons Group sold this unit 1702 at MEI Miami Beach for $1.8M. The 3 bedroom corner residence was priced to sell at $2M
Unit 1702 at the Caribbean condo sold for $4.6M or $1,978 per SF after being listed for $4,850,000
The penthouse at 321 Ocean Drive sold for $22M or $3,232 per SF. It was originally listed for $29.5M
FAQ
These are the most commonly Miami Real Estate Related questions
What should relocation buyers know before buying real estate in Miami?
HOME BUYERS
Relocation buyers looking at homes in Miami should understand that choosing the right house is less about the property itself and more about location, schools, and long-term value. Many buyers make the mistake of focusing on price or finishes, while the real driver of value is the neighborhood and micro-location. Older homes often represent better value, but may also be part of a future redevelopment cycle. Newer homes command premiums, but don’t always sell faster if pricing is ahead of the market. Commute time, school access, and community dynamics are critical and often underestimated. The key is to evaluate homes not just as lifestyle purchases, but as long-term assets within a very localized market.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/relocating-to-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/relocating-to-miami-with-a-family/
CONDO BUYERS:
Relocation buyers should understand that Miami is a highly segmented, building-driven market, not a uniform one. Pricing can vary significantly between similar properties depending on building quality, layout, and financial health. Many buyers assume newer construction equals better investment, but that is often not the case. Factors like HOA fees, reserves, and rental policies can materially impact long-term value and liquidity. Negotiation opportunities often exist, especially in slower segments, but require precise market knowledge. The key is to evaluate micro-markets and individual buildings, not just neighborhoods or price per square foot.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/miami-real-estate-market-report/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/new-construction-miami-guide/
What are the best areas for relocating families with children
For families relocating to Miami with young children, the most recommended neighborhoods are Coral Gables, Coconut Grove, and Pinecrest. Coral Gables offers the best balance of top schools, safety, and long-term value. Coconut Grove is ideal for younger families seeking walkability, greenery, and a lifestyle-driven environment. Pinecrest provides larger homes, excellent schools, and better value for space, making it ideal for growing families. The key driver across all three is access to strong schools and primary residential stability. Relocation decisions are less about new construction and more about long-term livability and resale strength.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/best-neighborhoods-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/what-are-the-best-family-neighborhoods-in-miami-in-2023/
Are new construction condos in Miami a good investment?
New construction condos in Miami can be a good investment—but only if you understand that not all buildings perform the same. According to the David Siddons Group, many buyers assume “new = better,” but in reality, performance depends on pricing, layout, building quality, and long-term demand. Some new developments set future price benchmarks and can drive long-term appreciation, especially in top-tier projects. However, many are priced aggressively at launch, and buyers relying on marketing instead of data often overpay.
The market is highly segmented, meaning two new buildings next to each other can perform very differently.
The best opportunities typically come from selecting the right building early or negotiating correctly in later phases.
In short: new construction is not automatically a good investment—it becomes one only with building-level analysis and disciplined entry pricing.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/independent-new-construction-condo-reviews/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/beyond-clickbait-real-insights-into-miamis-luxury-condo-market/
Why is buying a Miami condo riskier than buyers think?
Buying a Miami condo is often riskier than buyers expect because the true risks are at the building level—not visible in the listing price. Many buyers focus on finishes and views, while overlooking HOA reserves, insurance exposure, and potential special assessments. In reality, two identical units in different buildings can perform completely differently over time. Rising HOA fees and stricter regulations are also increasing the true cost of ownership, especially in older buildings. Liquidity can be affected by factors like financial health, rental policies, and ongoing repairs. The key risk is not the condo itself—but buying into the wrong building without proper due diligence.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/miami-condo-market-risks/
What are Miami's Safest Areas?
Which Miami Areas Still offer Great Value (Budget Friendly alternatives to Coral Gables and Pinecrest)
If you’re looking for better value than Coral Gables or Pinecrest, the answer (in true Siddons style) is not “go cheaper”—it’s go one layer outside the obvious markets.
The strongest value plays are:
- Schenley Park → closest substitute to Coral Gables at ~20% discount while maintaining similar character and location
- Biltmore Heights → almost identical feel to the Gables but ~25–30% cheaper on a $/SF basis
- Glenvar Heights → central location with larger lots and ~25% pricing advantage vs South Miami/Gables
- Baptist / Galloway (Kendall) → Pinecrest-style living (space, schools, land) at up to ~30% lower pricing
The pattern is consistent:
👉 Buyers are shifting west and slightly off-market to gain land, scale, and pricing efficiency. You don’t find value by going to a “cheaper neighborhood”—you find it by identifying adjacent micro-markets that offer the same lifestyle fundamentals without the brand premium.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/best-value-neighborhoods-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/miami-neighborhoods/
Is NOW a good time to buy in Miami?
Are Miami real estate prices going down in 2026?
No—but that’s the wrong way to look at it. Miami is not one market anymore, so prices are not moving in one direction. In 2026, the market is split into two: ultra-luxury, scarcity-driven areas (like waterfront and top-tier neighborhoods) are still holding or even rising, while mid-tier condos and oversupplied segments are flat or correcting. What we’re seeing is price divergence, not a crash—some properties are gaining value while others are quietly adjusting downward. Rising inventory and more selective buyers are putting pressure on pricing in certain segments, especially older condos or buildings with weaker fundamentals.
At the same time, global wealth and cash buyers continue to support pricing at the top end of the market. So the real answer: prices aren’t broadly dropping—they’re being repriced based on quality, location, and supply.
Should I buy a house or a condo when relocating to Miami?
The decision comes down to lifestyle first, investment second—and most relocation buyers get that backwards. If you want space, privacy, schools, and long-term family living, a single-family home in areas like Coral Gables or Coconut Grove is typically the stronger choice. If you prioritize walkability, low maintenance, and proximity to business districts, a condo in Brickell or waterfront markets makes more sense.
From an investment perspective, homes tend to be more stable, while condos are more building-dependent and cyclical. Most relocation clients underestimate how much building quality, HOA structure, and future costs impact condo performance. The right answer isn’t “house vs condo”—it’s which asset fits your lifestyle AND holds value within its micro-market.
How do I choose the right Miami neighborhood for my lifestyle?
Why are Miami condo prices so different between buildings?
Miami condo pricing varies widely because value is determined at the building level, not just by location. Two buildings next to each other can have major differences in financial health, reserves, HOA fees, and management quality. Buyers also pay premiums for better layouts, views, amenities, and newer construction—but not all “new” buildings perform equally. Factors like rental policies, upcoming assessments, and building reputation can significantly impact resale value. This is why price per square foot alone is misleading in Miami’s condo market. The real driver of value is how that specific building competes within its micro-market over time.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/independent-new-construction-condo-reviews/
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