Crash, Correction or Continued Growth? | Miami Real Estate Market Report 2022/2023 (Part 4)

Part 4 of our Miami Real Estate Market Report 2022/2023 | Predictions and Actionable advice for sellers and buyers

Recap of our Miami Real Estate Market Report 2022 / 2023

So we have now covered data and analytics for the primary and secondary markets in part 1, we have discussed the Miami rental market in part 2 and in part 3 we saw the influences of the wider economic market on Miami real estate. Overall the market might feel like its softening, but it’s just slowing down in many cases to a more normal speed. Everything feels slow when you come down from 250mph. Although we don’t expect the market to go up by 30% as it did last year, it can very likely and is currently tracking against inflation. To conclude our Miami Real Estate report for 2022 and 2023, we give more granular advice to both buyers and sellers across our markets and answers depend on many things including price point, geography and product type.

Advice for BUYERS

Home buyers – Recognize that in many single family sectors we still have very low inventory levels. Particularly in the $1-3m range recognize that even with all the negative macro-economic forces at play it is still a seller’s market and will remain so for quite some time unless something changes.

The upper mid-range ($5m+) and luxury Home buyers ($10m++). These sectors are softening a little. This does not mean a crash, it just means we should see more normal behavior and less crazy 10% over asking bidding wars.

To the ultra-high net worth buyer. Recognize the inventory across this sector (see part 1), but bear in mind that stats within this market can be easily swayed as you are dealing with a very small dataset. Recognize that Miami is not a huge city and the migration of ultra-wealthy has made it very competitive, so be cognizant that ultra-prime properties such as direct waterfront homes in gated or island communities are firstly not widely available and secondly that you will not necessarily be the only buyer with pockets that deep! Off-market trades are not uncommon and to my wealthiest of clients its very much part of the business to bring bespoke off market opportunities to you, that will not be readily available on Zillow.

Buyers looking for a new(er) single family home. For those looking for a new home we are bringing out to our audience a book of new homes being built and finished over the next 6 month to 36 months! This is a compiled list of new homes not currently listed on the MLS. New homes are in very very short supply and due to supply chain issues will remain so.

Sales by DSG and Summary

Condo buyers – If you are focusing on a condo purchase make sure to avoid condos that have a very high percentage of rentals in the building, focus on building of a primary nature. Avoid generic product (we can provide examples of what is generic and what is not).

Luxury Condo buyers of existing and new construction. Get granular. Using our software like Condo geeks, which allows you to get to the specificity of your product. Use Zillow to search, use us for verification! Developers will not openly tell you what’s available elsewhere or how their product stacks up against the competition. We will!

Sales by DSG and Summary

Read our latest article about the best Miami luxury condos for sale

Advice for SELLERS

LUXURY HOME SELLERS – Be aware of the impact of the stock market and how it affects perceived wealth. Also appreciate the current and future inventory levels across your market. Make sure to read the neighborhood reports.

MID-LEVEL HOME SELLERS Don’t overreach your values. Now is not the time to try to push the envelope. That’s a mistake. Be aware of what is coming into the market and understand how it works in relationship to what you own.

LAND SELLERS For those who are sellers of land – be aware of the supply chain issues and how that affects confidence. More importantly when bringing your land to market partner with an expert (like us) that can give confidence to buyers by providing execution solutions; the right GC, the right designer, the right architect!

MID AND LOW LEVEL CONDO SELLERS Get granular. Using our software like condo and home geeks allows you to get to the specificity of your product. Use Zillow to search, use us for verification!

If you own a somewhat generic product prepared that will get hammered sometime in the future. Call me and I can give you the list of mid-range generic condos!

Printscreens of our CondoGeeks tool showing you the performance of all Miami condos, Brickell condos in the $500K-$750K range and all of Bal Harbour’s condo market. The tool allows you to compare condos, compare neighborhood performance and to review a condo’s historic movement.

LUXURY CONDO SELLERS – Be aware of rising inventory. As shown and mentioned in Part 1 and part 2. If you own a condo in Brickell, Downtown, Edgewater and Sunny Isles prices can certainly go down if inventory continues to grow in the mid to high price ranges.

Also be aware of the competition coming from the new luxury construction condos across Miami – check out our article of the best 5 new construction condos and the best existing condos.

Projected inventory levels

Advice for INVESTORS

Avoid saturated rental markets. Single family rental market is in many cases better. They are more labor intensive but yield higher returns with less risk long term.

Don’t let the tail wag the dog! It is possibly not the best time to buy into certain condo markets if you are a short term investor (less than 3 years) as prices can and will likely come down. Short term returns may be attractive but if values come down your end result will be negative. Go back and study Part 1 of the report. You can also use the Condo Geeks tool or just call me!

Recognize the absolutely bonkers rental markets (see part 2) where returns are staggeringly good. Observe the primary home markets as they always have less inventory.

Advice for RENTERS

If you are renting at current rates, from a long term perspective it makes little sense. You are in many cases better off buying than renting.

If you are part of the mass migration families to South Florida and are a family renting a single family home, look to rent close to where you intend to buy. Also recognize the very high rental rates and perhaps compromise on the quality of home you might rent to avoid cash burn. Also try to implement a 6 month break clause in your lease so if you do find something you want to buy you can step into it quickly without suffering from the market continuing to go up or further cash burn on rent. Our territory managers are experts and live and work in the neighborhoods they sell.

Crash, Correction or Continued Growth? | Miami Real Estate Market Report 2022/2023 (Part 4)


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David Siddons
Akbota YerseitAkbota Yerseit
13:29 03 Jun 22
Excellent leaders!
Cathryne HaladnerCathryne Haladner
12:12 18 Sep 21
We have only superlatives to describe how wonderful Cris Buzolin was throughout the process of selling our townhouse in Coral Gables. We were away in the UK while the transaction was taking place and Cris handled everything-from clearing out our house, selling contents when she could, arranging the moving and storage and dealing with some very difficult problems which arose. Always patient and very willing to help in every way, Cris is a consummate professional who really cares about her clients and worked extremely hard to get the price we had asked for and make things for us as easy as she could. Nothing was too much for her to handle.Cris and Marianela (who provided additional very helpful assistance to us during the transaction) are part of the team that David Siddons has assembled.When we decided to sell our property, we contacted David and he established the framework for the transaction and ensured that everything proceeded smoothly and in accordance with our wishes. In sum, David Siddons and his team are extremely competent and professional and we are totally satisfied with the service they provided. To repeat, Cris Buzolin in particular, went way beyond what one would expect from a real estate agent. The David Siddons Group has our highest recommendation!
Jose Eduardo FilhoJose Eduardo Filho
17:17 13 Jul 21
I thank the whole team and especially Cris Buzolin who, in a very professional and competent way, helped me to sell my property safely and in the best market condition.
Idan Singh (Idan)Idan Singh (Idan)
19:53 07 Jun 21
Great Service for British Expats looking to move to the States.
Simone GarrettSimone Garrett
17:20 26 Feb 21
Fantastic group of people to work with!! David and Adriana were responsive and professional throughout the entire process. We weren't familiar with South Florida so David took us under his wing and did a fabulous job giving us a tour of select neighborhoods in South Florida and shared a great deal of information about each. We fell in love with the Botaniko community in Weston and closed the deal with Adriana. If you are buying/selling this is the team you want to work with!! Thank you guys for helping us find our dream home.