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    The 2019 / 2020 Miami Beach Condo Market Forecast

    April 9, 2019

    The 2019 Miami Beach Condo Forecast

    Download the full 2019 Miami Real Estate forecast here!

    Including all of Miami’s most desired residential areas

    The 2019 Forecast for Miami Beach Condos

     

    • We expect the condo hotel market to keep dominating the market below $1M. In 2018, 25% of sales happened in this sub-market. That portion of the market will still be in high demand on the beach as the buyers are either pure investors or oftentimes end-users who value the opportunity to rent out their condo while not in Miami.

     

    • We expect buyers to prefer South of Fifth to the rest of Miami Beach within the high-end of the condo market ($3M – $5M). The South of Fifth market is showing a much lower inventory level (2.5 years) compared to the rest of Miami Beach (6 years).

     

    • The luxury condo market (especially waterfront) is becoming more affordable and is displaying far more realistic asking price per SF compared to 2018 and 2019.

     

    • Several newly built boutique buildings are now on the resale market. The resale price per SqFt is not justifying the high price paid to the developer and offer some great deals for buyers.

     

    • Within the luxury condo market ($5M+) expect a continued amount of increased attention to fall on Mid Beach and Surfside with the introduction of ‘57 Ocean’ which sits on 57th and Collins. Other attention will fall on 87 Park and Fendi Chateau Residences in Surfside.

     

    • Expect to see far more realistic asking prices compared to 2017/2018 for ultra-luxury resale condos such as Faena House and the Edition, which were previously overvalued.
    The 2019 / 2020 Miami Beach Condo Market Forecast
    The 2019 / 2020 Miami Beach Condo Market Forecast

    What Does this Neighborhood Economic Health Score Mean?

    Using the human body as the perfect metaphor, this neighborhood health score indicates the current economic health of an area and its likelihood to fall ill or to be susceptible to illnesses. It measures the market’s elasticity; it is about robustness and resilience of the market against economic change.

    The 2019 / 2020 Miami Beach Condo Market Forecast
    The 2019 / 2020 Miami Beach Condo Market Forecast

    Advice for Miami Beach Condo Buyers

    The high levels of inventory provide a very favorable situation for any buyer looking for a solid base of options to buy on the Miami Beach market. We suggest entering the market below market price at any price level as this is still an adjusting market.

    It is recommended to avoid the heavily ‘touristic’ sections of the beach (5th to 35th) in favor of more residential sections – unless you are looking for an investment property or short term pied a Terre.

    On the higher end of the market we recommend you stay away from condo hotel projects and focus on sizable well renovation condos with direct water views in established buildings which have well run associations: Bath Club is a good example. Our preferred choices mainly sit in Surfside and North Miami Beach but look out for 57 Ocean and Monad Terrace making appearances in the luxury market. As always please call us for unfiltered and precisely analytical advice.

    Interesting opportunity in the new Ritz Carlton condo located on N Meridian Ave, which is offering high level finish and waterfront surrounded in a single family environment, starting from around $1000 per Sqft.

    Advice for Miami Beach Condo Sellers

    If you own a Miami Beach condo below $1M (unless its a legitimately strong income generating property) list your property at a realistic value or keep it rented for the next couple of years, as the demand for that product is much lower. Know how the short-term regulations for rent are now also much tighter and Airbnb is being more outlawed across the beach.

    In the high-end of the market, weigh up the costs of carrying pure investments and second homes and recognize that your market could in general continue to correct for the next 24 months. Alternatively if you do not want to sell, be ready to ride this downward turn through to 2021 before we see significant upswing in value.

    For legitimate and motivated sellers let us guide you on not just your building’s sales figures, but the holistic market figures and the competition that exists across other buildings.

    Recognize that when we provide you with months of inventory over the summer months the numbers might appear more favorable than they actually are, as many sellers simply take off their units from the market in the summer and then put them back in autumn.

    As with all the other markets recognize the power of the domestic buyer and make sure to use an agent who can focus on this group of buyer. Foreign investor activity is slower for 2019, but domestic purchases are most definitely up.

    Please contact the David Siddons Group for more information on the Miami Beach Real Estate Market

    David Siddons | +1.305.508.0899 | david@siddonsgroup.com

    The David Siddons Group is a top-performing Miami real estate group with nearly $100M in yearly sales. David is known as a market analyst and he is the author of several of Miami’s most groundbreaking real estate reports. 

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    THE 2018 MIAMI REAL ESTATE REPORT

    EX-STOCKBROCKER’S ANALYSIS OF THE MIAMI MARKET

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