The Coconut Grove Real Estate Market Forecast | Miami Real Estate Market Predictions for 2023

Introduction to our Coconut Grove Real Estate Market Forecast

Welcome to our Coconut Grove Real Estate Market Forecast! Coconut Grove has become the darling of the relocation market. Buyers from across the country have discovered this neighborhood over the last two years, and almost all became bewitched by its quaint, organic, almost European feel. Appropriately coined as The Village in the City, buyers from across America’s best neighborhoods move here willingly and don’t look back. La Hoya, Greenwich Connecticut, West Chester, Malibu. They all settle comfortably in the Grove.

By the end of 2022, it felt like Coconut Grove was bursting at the seams. No one wanted to leave, and more families kept trying to buy. Prices have eclipsed new heights, but can they go higher?

For many local home buyers and current residents, the Grove has gotten too expensive. Many families who would move from Brickell to the Grove, now have to find alternative options. Inventory remains almost universally low across all submarkets, and the desire for new homes can only mean more old homes are bought, and tear-downs and more record land sale prices in 2023. The higher interest rates don’t seem to make a dent in this almost bulletproof market.

For the Grove condo market, we have seen huge upswings in the top end of the Grove condo sales market with Park Grove as the leading luxury condo. Mr. C has now officially sold out, and closings start Nov 2023.

6 Observations

• Coconut Grove is still experiencing low inventory levels for single-family homes, especially quality inventory. This is the kind of market where a quality home will sell in a heartbeat. Newer, post-2015 homes start selling at $4.5M, which is the market where the highest volume of buyers is at.
• New Construction Homes are extremely scarce. This is a common observation across all the single-family home markets. The demand for new homes is high and those that are well-priced are sold very fast. The newer homes that come to market are stretching their asking prices as they know the demand for new homes is still high.
• 10% of the Current inventory is listed at $10M+. The Grove has always been an upscale market but saw fewer extremes than the Gables. Now 10% of the active listings are in the $10M+ range. All of these listings are located in gated communities, while almost half are waterfront. The Grove has seen sales prices per SF of $3,000 or more, something not often seen in Miami in pre-pandemic times. In addition, several $30M+ sales and Ken Griffith’s $106M purchase also happened in the Grove, changing people’s perspective of this market. Even dry lot homes are selling for $13M+, and now two listings at $20M+
• Coconut Grove is becoming too expensive for first-time home buyers. The properties that used to trade for $750K in pre-pandemic times are now selling for $1.6M. This market, which used to be a really good market for wealthier first-time homebuyers, now offers almost nothing for buyers looking below $2M. With this budget, the townhomes become attractive. As there is nothing available many sellers are still stretching the asking prices. This will result in surrounding markets getting more traction from buyers that cannot manage to buy in the Grove. Think of further west in Coral Gables, Shenandoah, Silverbluff, and the Roads.
• The rate of school applications doubled. Private school applications doubled in 2022, while the attrition rate is lower than ever. Signs of more people coming into Miami and fewer people being willing to leave. An indication that the market is strong, and stable for the years to come.
• The Luxury Condo Market remains almost void of inventory. Large units remain nearly impossible to track down. A severe lack of supply ensures a strong luxury condo market.