Rock Solid Condo Market Fueled by Cash | Surfside and Bal Harbour Q1 and Q2 2023 Market Report

Rock Solid Bal Harbour and Surfside condo market fueled by cash

Surfside and Bal Harbour Q1 and Q2 2023 Market Report. The Bal Harbour and Surfside condo market is very limited in its geographic size and number of units (currently less than 140 units for sale), compared to other condo markets on the beach like Miami Beach and Sunny Isles (respectively 700 and 340 units for sale above $500k). We always begin our market analysis with a close look at inventory levels compared to the market movement. From the graph below it is very clear that, after a steep increase in available units around the beginning of the year, the inventory has stabilized at the levels of the Fall of 2022. According to our Neighborhood Statistics Software, the months of supply indicator currently sits at Seven months.

Rock Solid Condo Market Fueled by Cash | Surfside and Bal Harbour Q1 and Q2 2023 Market Report

Surfside and Bal Harbour Q1 and Q2 2023 Market Report | Number of Closed Sales

However, it is very important to read the data correctly and realize that the months of inventory have been affected more by the slowdown in activity during the slow summer season rather than an actual build-up in the supply. While the months of inventory based on closed sales are currently at 10 months, we see that the market is gaining velocity. Recorded closed sales in the last 3 months were 38, but the total number of closed sales and pended sales is 61 moving the bar to a forecasted month of inventory down to 6 months.

We are witnessing an increased velocity with more condo units going under contract. Overall, the market is up 20% in Bal Harbour and Surfside.

Surfside and Bal Harbour Q1 and Q2 2023 Market Report | Increasing Prices per SF

In short, the demand is rapidly catching up with the supply. The Bal Harbour and Surfside market, very limited in size, remains extremely solid. This is not surprising, considering that 85% of the Bal Harbour and Surfside market does not rely on financing and it’s made of full cash transactions (only 6 out of 38 recorded sales in the last 3 months were closed with some financing).

Besides the quantity of available products, we always look at the quality. In particular, we watch the behavior of the market relative to the age of the condos (newer and older condos), and the size of the units ( 1-2 bedroom units versus large 3+ bedroom units).

See below the performance of newer condos versus condos built more than 20 years ago.

Surfside and Bal Harbour Q1 and Q2 2023 Market Report |Difference between Newer and Older Condos

Almost 60% of the units available are located in condos built over 20 years ago – ranging between $500k and $4M. The remaining 40% are condo units built more recently. In this bucket, sale prices range between $2M and $20M.

Even if our analysis is mostly focused on beachfront condos over $500K, we believe it is important to mention Bay Harbour Island with currently 65 active condos $500+, 15 closed sales in the last 90 days, and 12 pended/under contract. This market has a high velocity, and it is drawing a lot of attention due to the big wave of condos and retail development.

About a dozen waterfront/water view boutique condo developments are planned or under construction, including some very high-end condo units. Due to its quiet location very close to the beach, its proximity to the water, good schools, and developing retail, the Bay Harbour Island will play a very important role in the luxury condo market. Read more about the new condo developments here.

Advise for Buyers

Whether you are exploring the Bal Harbour market for the first time or keeping an eye on this market for a while, realize that the availability of good units in newer condos or even remodeled units in older established condos is extremely limited and worth the premium. If the beachfront is not a must for you, consider the available options offered by the new development in Bay Harbor. If you are considering an older condo, factor the heavy assessment (current and upcoming) into your purchase price.

Advise for Sellers

If you own a unit in a condo built over 20 years ago and it’s not your primary residence, you might consider selling in the next six months. Condo values will hold very well until there are more newer options available on the market. You can take advantage of the fact that this market is not directly dependent on interest rate fluctuation and buyers are willing to pay the price for a beachfront property in this pocket.
If your condo is an investment unit, be aware that to have a decent return on your investment in the long term, you will have to come up with heavy costs of remodeling (whether that is relative to the unit or beautification and restoration of the common areas). If you own a newer condo or a remodeled unit in an established condo, your asset is limited, and you can command high prices for your unit in this market.

Read our other neighborhood and luxury reports

If you would like to get perspective on other specific neighborhoods or luxury reports. Please click here to go to our main database of reports. We update these every 6 months.

Schedule Time with David and Stefania (Our Surfside/Bal Harbour Expert)

FAQ

These are the most commonly Miami Real Estate Related questions

What should relocation buyers know before buying real estate in Miami?

HOME BUYERS

Relocation buyers looking at homes in Miami should understand that choosing the right house is less about the property itself and more about location, schools, and long-term value. Many buyers make the mistake of focusing on price or finishes, while the real driver of value is the neighborhood and micro-location. Older homes often represent better value, but may also be part of a future redevelopment cycle. Newer homes command premiums, but don’t always sell faster if pricing is ahead of the market. Commute time, school access, and community dynamics are critical and often underestimated. The key is to evaluate homes not just as lifestyle purchases, but as long-term assets within a very localized market.

Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/relocating-to-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/relocating-to-miami-with-a-family/

CONDO BUYERS:
Relocation buyers should understand that Miami is a highly segmented, building-driven market, not a uniform one. Pricing can vary significantly between similar properties depending on building quality, layout, and financial health. Many buyers assume newer construction equals better investment, but that is often not the case. Factors like HOA fees, reserves, and rental policies can materially impact long-term value and liquidity. Negotiation opportunities often exist, especially in slower segments, but require precise market knowledge. The key is to evaluate micro-markets and individual buildings, not just neighborhoods or price per square foot.

Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/miami-real-estate-market-report/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/new-construction-miami-guide/

What are the best areas for relocating families with children

For families relocating to Miami with young children, the most recommended neighborhoods are Coral Gables, Coconut Grove, and Pinecrest. Coral Gables offers the best balance of top schools, safety, and long-term value. Coconut Grove is ideal for younger families seeking walkability, greenery, and a lifestyle-driven environment. Pinecrest provides larger homes, excellent schools, and better value for space, making it ideal for growing families. The key driver across all three is access to strong schools and primary residential stability. Relocation decisions are less about new construction and more about long-term livability and resale strength.

Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/best-neighborhoods-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/what-are-the-best-family-neighborhoods-in-miami-in-2023/

Are new construction condos in Miami a good investment?

New construction condos in Miami can be a good investment—but only if you understand that not all buildings perform the same. According to the David Siddons Group, many buyers assume “new = better,” but in reality, performance depends on pricing, layout, building quality, and long-term demand.  Some new developments set future price benchmarks and can drive long-term appreciation, especially in top-tier projects.  However, many are priced aggressively at launch, and buyers relying on marketing instead of data often overpay.
The market is highly segmented, meaning two new buildings next to each other can perform very differently.
The best opportunities typically come from selecting the right building early or negotiating correctly in later phases.
In short: new construction is not automatically a good investment—it becomes one only with building-level analysis and disciplined entry pricing.

Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/independent-new-construction-condo-reviews/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/beyond-clickbait-real-insights-into-miamis-luxury-condo-market/

Why is buying a Miami condo riskier than buyers think?

Buying a Miami condo is often riskier than buyers expect because the true risks are at the building level—not visible in the listing price. Many buyers focus on finishes and views, while overlooking HOA reserves, insurance exposure, and potential special assessments. In reality, two identical units in different buildings can perform completely differently over time. Rising HOA fees and stricter regulations are also increasing the true cost of ownership, especially in older buildings. Liquidity can be affected by factors like financial health, rental policies, and ongoing repairs. The key risk is not the condo itself—but buying into the wrong building without proper due diligence.

Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/miami-condo-market-risks/

What are Miami's Safest Areas?

The safest areas in Miami are typically Coral Gables, Coconut Grove, Pinecrest, Key Biscayne, and Ponce-Davis. These neighborhoods stand out due to low density, strong community presence, and high concentration of full-time residents, which directly impacts safety. In Miami, safety is highly localized, meaning micro-location and specific streets matter more than zip codes. Areas with top schools and family-driven demand tend to maintain stronger safety profiles over time. Gated communities and low-traffic residential streets further enhance security. Ultimately, the safest areas are defined less by price and more by stability, schools, and residential character.

Which Miami Areas Still offer Great Value (Budget Friendly alternatives to Coral Gables and Pinecrest)

If you’re looking for better value than Coral Gables or Pinecrest, the answer (in true Siddons style) is not “go cheaper”—it’s go one layer outside the obvious markets.

The strongest value plays are:

  • Schenley Park → closest substitute to Coral Gables at ~20% discount while maintaining similar character and location
  • Biltmore Heights → almost identical feel to the Gables but ~25–30% cheaper on a $/SF basis
  • Glenvar Heights → central location with larger lots and ~25% pricing advantage vs South Miami/Gables
  • Baptist / Galloway (Kendall) → Pinecrest-style living (space, schools, land) at up to ~30% lower pricing

The pattern is consistent:
👉 Buyers are shifting west and slightly off-market to gain land, scale, and pricing efficiency. You don’t find value by going to a “cheaper neighborhood”—you find it by identifying adjacent micro-markets that offer the same lifestyle fundamentals without the brand premium.

Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/best-value-neighborhoods-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/miami-neighborhoods/

Is NOW a good time to buy in Miami?

In 2026, the answer is yes—but only if you understand what part of the market you’re buying into. Miami is no longer one market; it has split into multiple segments behaving very differently. From a David Siddons perspective, this is a selective buyer’s window, not a broad “good time” headline. Some segments—especially condos with rising inventory—are offering negotiation opportunities and better entry points. 

At the same time, prime single-family homes and top-tier new construction continue to hold value or even trade near record levels.

Buyers who rely on timing the market often miss the point—success in Miami today comes from selecting the right micro-market and asset, not waiting for a crash.  If you are disciplined on pricing, building quality, and location, this market offers opportunity. If you are not, it is easy to overpay. 2026 is a good time to buy in Miami for informed buyers—because the market is fragmented, negotiation exists, and strategy matters more than ever.

Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/miami-real-estate-market-report-q1-2026/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/market-reports/

Are Miami real estate prices going down in 2026?

No—but that’s the wrong way to look at it. Miami is not one market anymore, so prices are not moving in one direction. In 2026, the market is split into two: ultra-luxury, scarcity-driven areas (like waterfront and top-tier neighborhoods) are still holding or even rising, while mid-tier condos and oversupplied segments are flat or correcting. What we’re seeing is price divergence, not a crash—some properties are gaining value while others are quietly adjusting downward. Rising inventory and more selective buyers are putting pressure on pricing in certain segments, especially older condos or buildings with weaker fundamentals.
At the same time, global wealth and cash buyers continue to support pricing at the top end of the market. So the real answer: prices aren’t broadly dropping—they’re being repriced based on quality, location, and supply.

Miami Real Estate Market Report Q1 2026

Should I buy a house or a condo when relocating to Miami?

The decision comes down to lifestyle first, investment second—and most relocation buyers get that backwards. If you want space, privacy, schools, and long-term family living, a single-family home in areas like Coral Gables or Coconut Grove is typically the stronger choice. If you prioritize walkability, low maintenance, and proximity to business districts, a condo in Brickell or waterfront markets makes more sense.
From an investment perspective, homes tend to be more stable, while condos are more building-dependent and cyclical. Most relocation clients underestimate how much building quality, HOA structure, and future costs impact condo performance. The right answer isn’t “house vs condo”—it’s which asset fits your lifestyle AND holds value within its micro-market.

 

 How do I choose the right Miami neighborhood for my lifestyle?

Choosing the right neighborhood in Miami comes down to how you live day-to-day, not just where prices are. Relocation buyers should first define priorities: walkability, schools, commute, or waterfront lifestyle.
For example, Coconut Grove fits walkable, family-oriented living, while Brickell suits urban, high-rise lifestyles. Buyers often make the mistake of focusing on price per square foot instead of lifestyle fit and long-term livability. Each neighborhood operates like its own micro-market, so the “best” area depends on your daily routine and long-term goals. The key is to align lifestyle, location, and market fundamentals, not just aesthetics or newness.


https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/best-neighborhoods-miami/

Why are Miami condo prices so different between buildings?

Miami condo pricing varies widely because value is determined at the building level, not just by location. Two buildings next to each other can have major differences in financial health, reserves, HOA fees, and management quality. Buyers also pay premiums for better layouts, views, amenities, and newer construction—but not all “new” buildings perform equally. Factors like rental policies, upcoming assessments, and building reputation can significantly impact resale value. This is why price per square foot alone is misleading in Miami’s condo market. The real driver of value is how that specific building competes within its micro-market over time.

Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/independent-new-construction-condo-reviews/

WHY WORK WITH DAVID? THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW...

For all our analytics we are agents driving some very unique and advanced tech. We Provide a granular and custom experience that empower our clients with the insight and tools to understand the most complex behaviors of any local markets.

  • Analytical

    Over 100 reports produced to date

  • Knowledgeable

    Over 1800 published articles and counting

  • Experienced

    Over $2 billion in real estate sales

    Reviews
David Siddons
blog

Related Articles