The Fundamentals Driving Miami’s Real Estate Resilience with Prof. Eli Beracha

We had the privilege of sitting down with Eli Beracha, Director and Professor at FIU’s Hollo School of Real Estate and trusted advisor at the Beracha Team, for the third time on our show. This time, rather than just talking about the market, we’re diving deeper into the fundamentals that drive successful real estate investments. Eli’s unparalleled expertise and in-depth market analysis make this a conversation you won’t want to miss. With his deep analysis and expertise, he reveals the core principles that every savvy buyer, seller, and investor needs to understand.

America’s Real Estate Resilience: A Market Driven by Scarcity and Growth.

With the presidential elections behind us, one thing is clear: betting against America is a losing game. The U.S. economy continues to shine on the global stage, with steady growth and a long history of outperforming other major economies. At the core of this strength lies the real estate market, boasting an incredible $35 trillion in equity. In recent years, real estate values have soared, driven by a unique set of circumstances. Unlike previous booms, where cheap financing led to overbuilding and eventual price crashes—like in 2007—this cycle is different. Population growth, particularly in Florida, has surged, but housing supply hasn’t kept pace. Nationwide, there’s a shortfall of 4 million homes, including a need for 200,000 homes in South Florida’s Tri-County area alone. This sharp imbalance between supply and demand continues to push prices higher, underscoring the strength and resilience of American real estate.

Housing Challenges, Demand, and Limited Inventory

The U.S. housing market faces mounting pressure from strong migration patterns, aging housing stock, and declining birth rates. Many older homes are becoming obsolete and need demolition, while affordability issues force many—particularly young adults—to live with parents or roommates due to insufficient income. This affordability crisis, coupled with a nationwide housing shortage, keeps the market unbalanced. Despite record-low transaction volumes last year, limited inventory caused prices to rise rather than fall. Pent-up demand from buyers waiting on the sidelines continues to grow, heavily influenced by interest rates and the slow pace of new construction. Renters add further pressure, as they compete for the same limited housing supply.

Meanwhile, shifting living standards underscore the demand for more space. Two centuries ago, six people might share an 800-square-foot home; today, homes are three times larger, even as families are half the size. This trend is irreversible, with demand for larger living spaces increasing, especially post-COVID, as people prioritize room for work and leisure.

In Miami-Dade, the challenges are even more pronounced. New construction primarily focuses on condos, while the supply of single-family homes remains scarce due to limited land. When new homes are built, they often replace older ones, making it difficult to meaningfully expand the housing stock.

Miami’s Housing Paradox: A 200,000-Unit Shortage Amid Overbuilding Perceptions

The Miami area  is currently experiencing a shortage of 200,000 units, yet the perception persists that we are overbuilding. This comes as the market is shifting,  driven by a new wave of capital. Historically, the city attracted wealth from places like the Northeast, Latin America, and Canada, with many buyers bringing money here rather than earning it locally. Now, more people are settling in Miami, generating wealth locally and creating a new crowd seeking ultra-high-end properties. This has led to a rise in boutique developments catering to high-end buyers. In the short term, we may see a slight oversupply—though some properties are simply expensive without meeting the true standards of ultra-luxury.

Condos vs. Homes: Scarcity and Investment Potential

Single-family homes are more likely to appreciate due to their scarcity. Unlike condos, new homes typically replace existing ones, especially in areas like Miami, where land is limited. There are areas like Homestead, where ample land is still available for development. Homes here are significantly more affordable compared to those in Miami—roughly one-fourth the cost—and have potential for growth

Condos are more affordable, both at the luxury and entry levels, but their supply is more abundant. In contrast, homes are increasingly rare, and anything rare with demand tends to rise in value.

Owning a home offers more control over your investment. You can make improvements to increase value, unlike in condos, where mismanaged funds or limited control can impact your investment. However, affordability remains a challenge, as entry-level home prices are often out of reach for many buyers. Homes also require more maintenance, and quality options are scarce, pushing more people toward ultra-luxury condos, which are larger and harder to replicate.

Unique and well-designed properties—whether oceanfront homes, point lots, or iconic condos like Mandarin Oriental, Continuum, or Park Grove—tend to hold and grow their value. These condos, with resort-style amenities and prime locations, are difficult and expensive to replicate today.

In general, single-family homes remain a strong investment argument due to their scarcity. As the saying goes, “They’re not making any more land.” However, the key to success is identifying the right product—whether home or condo—that fits your goals and budget. While in general homes tend to outperform condos, there are several condos that perform extremely well. I have found a way to identify them. Please call me at 305.508.0899

Fundamentals Driving Wealth Generation

Miami has evolved from being a holiday destination to a hub for tech and finance. Major players like Microsoft, Adobe, and other tech giants are establishing offices in the area, bringing high-paying jobs. The employees they attract—many of whom come with families—require housing, creating strong demand for real estate. These large companies don’t just attract people, they also attract a whole network of businesses that provide supplies, services, and support. In addition, these new companies often  pay significantly more than the traditional industries Miami once thrived on.

This flow of wealth migration isn’t temporary; it’s ongoing. Miami continues to attract people seeking new opportunities, and that trend shows no signs of slowing down.

While office markets across the U.S. face challenges, Miami-Dade remains unique. You can’t find Class A office space*—every available space is occupied. Even in Class B offices, demand is high, with only Class C spaces showing softness. The influx of corporate money has filled all A and B-class spaces.

New office developments are underway, signaling that thousands more high-earning employees are still expected to move to Miami. These newcomers will further fuel the demand for real estate, often replacing existing properties as they renovate and upgrade homes. This population replacement has brought in wealthier households, with areas like Coral Gables seeing household income rise by 78% over the past two years, largely due to this shift.

*Class A refers to the top-tier, most prestigious office spaces—often the most expensive, fully occupied by household-name companies.

The New Wave of Movement: Forces at Play in 2025

The real estate market is entering a new phase of activity as post-election uncertainty fades. Pent-up demand from buyers who were hesitant to act is now building momentum. Stability over the past year, along with a slight dip in interest rates, has eased concerns, and many buyers are realizing they can’t afford to wait any longer—whether for prices to fall or rates to drop further. After months of delaying decisions, people are ready to act, tired of missing opportunities in a dynamic market.

Looking ahead to 2025, the conditions are set for a rebound in transaction volumes. Gradual easing of mortgage rates will likely drive increased activity, with prices stabilizing rather than experiencing sharp fluctuations. While home values have grown significantly in a short time, they are more likely to pause than to decline.

In Miami, the stakes are particularly high. Homes continue to appreciate, and the risk of waiting far outweighs potential rewards. While the condo market still offers some opportunities on the more affordable end, the urgency is greater for single-family homes, where scarcity drives up competition. Buyers who have been waiting for the “perfect” moment now realize that the best time to act is before prices climb further or inventory tightens even more.

Conclusions

There’s still significant capital migration, ongoing development of commercial space, and the repurposing of multi-family properties. Population replacement is driving growth, signaling a new era for Miami. The demand for new construction has been unprecedented. For example, we’ve been involved in projects like The Well, where we’ve seen 20 reservations in just one day. Sales at Mandarin and Perigon are skyrocketing, and deals at Five Park are moving quickly—there’s a clear realization of where Miami is headed in the long term, with buyers showing confidence and trust in the city’s future.

The market slowed before the elections, but activity has steadily picked up since. The key takeaway: don’t bet against the U.S. Over the past 40–50 years, the U.S. has consistently outpaced the G7 in economic growth, solidifying its long-term strength. While there are always reasons to hesitate, the U.S. economy remains resilient—and real estate plays a critical role, with housing accounting for approximately $35 trillion in equity.

Connect with David

Please call me at 305.508.0899 for a personal chat about the South Florida Real Estate market or to work with me or schedule a meeting via the below calendar.

FAQ

These are the most commonly asked Google Real Estate Related questions

1. What are the Current Best New Condos in Miami?

If you want to hear in more details our opinions on the best new Miami new construction condos. Please read this article:Best New Construction Condos 2022-2023

2. What is the best New Construction Condo in Fort Lauderdale?

In our opinion, the Residences at Pier Sixty-six are certainly the most interesting and unique. Already well underway this 32 Acre project will be home to the first of its kind Marina where owners will be able to anchor up vessels up to a staggering 400 ft! For specifics of this project see our independent review of this project.

3. How can I compare the new luxury construction Condos to the best existing Luxury Condos in Miami? 

Our Best Luxury Condos in Miami article will prove to be very useful to those looking to compare the existing to the new. You may also want to watch this video which shows the performance of the best Condos in Miami over the last 15 years!

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