The 90 Day Key Biscayne Real Estate Report | Key Biscayne Homes Shatter Records in Q3 2021

The Key Biscayne Single-Family Home Market is Seeing Record Prices

♦ Entry level homes are now priced at $2.5M+
♦ More $15M+ homes sold in the last five months than in the prior ten years
♦ Modern dry lot homes now selling for waterfront prices we saw six months ago

Now For Sale in Key Biscayne: 766 Harbor Dr. This  2005 Construction home offers almost 10,000 SF of  living area on a 18,734 SF lot with 100″ water frontage. The property is currently listed for $14M with the David Siddons Group

As we approach the end of summer and Q3 2021, it’s worth stepping back and sharing an update of what has been a whirlwind, record setting period for Key Biscayne Single Family Homes. Sales volume has tripled compared to pre-pandemic levels, hitting an all time record of 23 monthly sales in June.  Pre-pandemic (2019/2020) we would register between 3 and 8 monthly sales, with some months registering as few as one single sale per month. As you can see in the bar chart below (left), this means that cumulative sales volume through August 2021 is 3 times higher than the 2019 full year sales.

With these record sales levels of Key Biscayne Single Family Homes and as depicted above (left), inventory of Key Biscayne homes for sale in Q3 2021 has decreased dramatically to less than a third of our 2019 peak inventory of almost 140 Key Biscayne homes for sale. In fact, the inventory on August 2021 of 39 listings sets a shocking all-time record low, representing a steady inventory decrease of about half of the Jan 2021 levels.

Key Biscayne Homes Shatter Records in Q3 2021 with an extremely low level of inventory

Key Biscayne Homes Shatter Records in Q3 2021 with an extremely high number of sales

Key Biscayne entry level homes ($2M – $4M)

Twelve Key Biscayne Single Family Homes priced under 2 Million were sold between June and August 2021, leaving no homes available for sale under 2 million dollars – as of September 2021. The second cheapest home was traded for $1.65M and corresponds to a 1998 home on a townhome sized lot (4,500sf) on Fernwood. Most sales correspond to standard lots (7,500sf) with original and/or somewhat updated construction. Accordingly, Key Biscayne “entry level” homes are now in the $2M-$4M range, with inventory continuing to decrease steadily to only 15 homes available for sale in the $2M – $4m price range by end of August/21.

As of September 2021 $2M will buy, if you are in luck, a teardown home and you’ll need to budget $2.5M+ for a home in “livable conditions”. In fact, just the land has jumped dramatically. Last year we sold the most expensive dry lot at 159 Buttonwood Dr in December for $1.4M (8,000sf) and right now you will find standard lots for sale between $2M and $2.2M.

698 Fernwood Rd sold for $1,650,000 or $671 per SF

Key Biscayne modern homes ($4M – $8M)

The $4M – $8M segment of the Key Biscayne homes market was the hottest performer in Key Biscayne between June and August 2021 with volume increasing threefold. This segment used to include many waterfront homes, most of them on canals. Now this price range includes primarily dry lot new construction homes, dry lot homes built after 2010, most of the gated community homes (Oceana and Grand Bay) as well as a few canal properties, which may need substantial work or even tearing the down. For example,  641 S Mashta, a new home on an oversized dry lot, sold for $6.48M in June and absolute eye opener transaction for dry lot homes on the key.

641 S Mashta Dr sold for $6,480,000, that’s $1,268 per SF.

Another example to illustrate changes in this segment of the market is the best waterfront deal of 2021 , in which I represented the buyer of 945 Mariner, who paid $5.75M in Q1 2021. Similar size properties on the same street -but newer construction from 2003 and 2014 respectively- sold for over $9M in Q2 2021. 1045 Mariner, a smaller home built in the 60’s with some renovations, is currently listed for $8.85M.

Key Biscayne Luxury Waterfront Homes ($8M+)

This segment of the market is the high-end or premium tier. Traditionally, most homes in this tier have been on Mashta Island or Harbor Drive, enjoying open bay views and generous dockage. During this period, ten Key Biscayne homes priced above $8M were sold. This compares to 6 homes sold in 2020 and 2 homes sold in 2021. 9 Harbor Point, a 2005 home on a large lot, sold for a record $18M. 880 Harbor, a new home on a standard lot sold for $15.25M.

The dramatic change in dynamics of this segment of the market is maybe best illustrated by the fact 5 homes sold in the $15M-$18M range over the last five months, 4 of them are new or totally redone. This compares to only four homes being sold above $14.5M over the last 10 years.

As the Key Biscayne reaches new pricing heights, new buyers look to the broader market (i.e.Venetian Islands, North Bay Road, etc) for comparables  (rather than other Key Biscayne homes favored by traditional buyers) and purchases look favorable in those terms.

9 Harbor Point sold for $18M, that’s $1,632 per SF

Key Biscayne Waterfront vs. Dry lot considerations

The spike in Key Biscayne waterfront home prices in 2021 is higher than for dry lot homes: 31% vs 13% median price increase from 2020. The average list price per SF for dry lot homes hit a record of $1,247 in 2021, an increase of over 20% from 2020. Waterfront home are now selling at an average of $2,000 per SF.

Moving forward ….

Prices are up -substantially- and properties are no longer taking years to get sold so this may be a good time for owners to rebalance investment portfolios and obtain liquidity, hedging the risk of their valuable assets taking more time to be sold or prices stalling. Educating the Miami real estate market with articles, analysis, reports, videos and proprietary analytical software over the last 15 years we at the David Siddons Group have become a dominant force in the market, drawing in over 100,000 visitors a month to our website with new articles weekly and serving buyers from across the country. With $300M+ just in Q1 and Q2 sales for 2021 we are  the first and obvious choice to list and reach audiences across North America, South America and Europe.  Please give me a call to discuss how to best more forward, including making it easy to find and transition to your new home !