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The 90 Day Key Biscayne Real Estate Report | Key Biscayne Homes Shatter Records in Q3 2021
The Key Biscayne Single-Family Home Market is Seeing Record Prices
♦ Entry level homes are now priced at $2.5M+
♦ More $15M+ homes sold in the last five months than in the prior ten years
♦ Modern dry lot homes now selling for waterfront prices we saw six months ago
Now For Sale in Key Biscayne: 766 Harbor Dr. This 2005 Construction home offers almost 10,000 SF of living area on a 18,734 SF lot with 100″ water frontage. The property is currently listed for $14M with the David Siddons Group
As we approach the end of summer and Q3 2021, it’s worth stepping back and sharing an update of what has been a whirlwind, record setting period for Key Biscayne Single Family Homes. Sales volume has tripled compared to pre-pandemic levels, hitting an all time record of 23 monthly sales in June. Pre-pandemic (2019/2020) we would register between 3 and 8 monthly sales, with some months registering as few as one single sale per month. As you can see in the bar chart below (left), this means that cumulative sales volume through August 2021 is 3 times higher than the 2019 full year sales.
With these record sales levels of Key Biscayne Single Family Homes and as depicted above (left), inventory of Key Biscayne homes for sale in Q3 2021 has decreased dramatically to less than a third of our 2019 peak inventory of almost 140 Key Biscayne homes for sale. In fact, the inventory on August 2021 of 39 listings sets a shocking all-time record low, representing a steady inventory decrease of about half of the Jan 2021 levels.

Key Biscayne Homes Shatter Records in Q3 2021 with an extremely low level of inventory

Key Biscayne Homes Shatter Records in Q3 2021 with an extremely high number of sales
Key Biscayne entry level homes ($2M – $4M)
Twelve Key Biscayne Single Family Homes priced under 2 Million were sold between June and August 2021, leaving no homes available for sale under 2 million dollars – as of September 2021. The second cheapest home was traded for $1.65M and corresponds to a 1998 home on a townhome sized lot (4,500sf) on Fernwood. Most sales correspond to standard lots (7,500sf) with original and/or somewhat updated construction. Accordingly, Key Biscayne “entry level” homes are now in the $2M-$4M range, with inventory continuing to decrease steadily to only 15 homes available for sale in the $2M – $4m price range by end of August/21.
As of September 2021 $2M will buy, if you are in luck, a teardown home and you’ll need to budget $2.5M+ for a home in “livable conditions”. In fact, just the land has jumped dramatically. Last year we sold the most expensive dry lot at 159 Buttonwood Dr in December for $1.4M (8,000sf) and right now you will find standard lots for sale between $2M and $2.2M.
698 Fernwood Rd sold for $1,650,000 or $671 per SF
Key Biscayne modern homes ($4M – $8M)
The $4M – $8M segment of the Key Biscayne homes market was the hottest performer in Key Biscayne between June and August 2021 with volume increasing threefold. This segment used to include many waterfront homes, most of them on canals. Now this price range includes primarily dry lot new construction homes, dry lot homes built after 2010, most of the gated community homes (Oceana and Grand Bay) as well as a few canal properties, which may need substantial work or even tearing the down. For example, 641 S Mashta, a new home on an oversized dry lot, sold for $6.48M in June and absolute eye opener transaction for dry lot homes on the key.
641 S Mashta Dr sold for $6,480,000, that’s $1,268 per SF.
Another example to illustrate changes in this segment of the market is the best waterfront deal of 2021 , in which I represented the buyer of 945 Mariner, who paid $5.75M in Q1 2021. Similar size properties on the same street -but newer construction from 2003 and 2014 respectively- sold for over $9M in Q2 2021. 1045 Mariner, a smaller home built in the 60’s with some renovations, is currently listed for $8.85M.
Key Biscayne Luxury Waterfront Homes ($8M+)
This segment of the market is the high-end or premium tier. Traditionally, most homes in this tier have been on Mashta Island or Harbor Drive, enjoying open bay views and generous dockage. During this period, ten Key Biscayne homes priced above $8M were sold. This compares to 6 homes sold in 2020 and 2 homes sold in 2021. 9 Harbor Point, a 2005 home on a large lot, sold for a record $18M. 880 Harbor, a new home on a standard lot sold for $15.25M.
The dramatic change in dynamics of this segment of the market is maybe best illustrated by the fact 5 homes sold in the $15M-$18M range over the last five months, 4 of them are new or totally redone. This compares to only four homes being sold above $14.5M over the last 10 years.
As the Key Biscayne reaches new pricing heights, new buyers look to the broader market (i.e.Venetian Islands, North Bay Road, etc) for comparables (rather than other Key Biscayne homes favored by traditional buyers) and purchases look favorable in those terms.

9 Harbor Point sold for $18M, that’s $1,632 per SF
Key Biscayne Waterfront vs. Dry lot considerations
The spike in Key Biscayne waterfront home prices in 2021 is higher than for dry lot homes: 31% vs 13% median price increase from 2020. The average list price per SF for dry lot homes hit a record of $1,247 in 2021, an increase of over 20% from 2020. Waterfront home are now selling at an average of $2,000 per SF.
Moving forward ….
Prices are up -substantially- and properties are no longer taking years to get sold so this may be a good time for owners to rebalance investment portfolios and obtain liquidity, hedging the risk of their valuable assets taking more time to be sold or prices stalling. Educating the Miami real estate market with articles, analysis, reports, videos and proprietary analytical software over the last 15 years we at the David Siddons Group have become a dominant force in the market, drawing in over 100,000 visitors a month to our website with new articles weekly and serving buyers from across the country. With $300M+ just in Q1 and Q2 sales for 2021 we are the first and obvious choice to list and reach audiences across North America, South America and Europe. Please give me a call to discuss how to best more forward, including making it easy to find and transition to your new home !
FAQ
These are the most commonly Miami Real Estate Related questions
What should relocation buyers know before buying real estate in Miami?
HOME BUYERS
Relocation buyers looking at homes in Miami should understand that choosing the right house is less about the property itself and more about location, schools, and long-term value. Many buyers make the mistake of focusing on price or finishes, while the real driver of value is the neighborhood and micro-location. Older homes often represent better value, but may also be part of a future redevelopment cycle. Newer homes command premiums, but don’t always sell faster if pricing is ahead of the market. Commute time, school access, and community dynamics are critical and often underestimated. The key is to evaluate homes not just as lifestyle purchases, but as long-term assets within a very localized market.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/relocating-to-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/relocating-to-miami-with-a-family/
CONDO BUYERS:
Relocation buyers should understand that Miami is a highly segmented, building-driven market, not a uniform one. Pricing can vary significantly between similar properties depending on building quality, layout, and financial health. Many buyers assume newer construction equals better investment, but that is often not the case. Factors like HOA fees, reserves, and rental policies can materially impact long-term value and liquidity. Negotiation opportunities often exist, especially in slower segments, but require precise market knowledge. The key is to evaluate micro-markets and individual buildings, not just neighborhoods or price per square foot.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/miami-real-estate-market-report/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/new-construction-miami-guide/
What are the best areas for relocating families with children
For families relocating to Miami with young children, the most recommended neighborhoods are Coral Gables, Coconut Grove, and Pinecrest. Coral Gables offers the best balance of top schools, safety, and long-term value. Coconut Grove is ideal for younger families seeking walkability, greenery, and a lifestyle-driven environment. Pinecrest provides larger homes, excellent schools, and better value for space, making it ideal for growing families. The key driver across all three is access to strong schools and primary residential stability. Relocation decisions are less about new construction and more about long-term livability and resale strength.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/best-neighborhoods-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/what-are-the-best-family-neighborhoods-in-miami-in-2023/
Are new construction condos in Miami a good investment?
New construction condos in Miami can be a good investment—but only if you understand that not all buildings perform the same. According to the David Siddons Group, many buyers assume “new = better,” but in reality, performance depends on pricing, layout, building quality, and long-term demand. Some new developments set future price benchmarks and can drive long-term appreciation, especially in top-tier projects. However, many are priced aggressively at launch, and buyers relying on marketing instead of data often overpay.
The market is highly segmented, meaning two new buildings next to each other can perform very differently.
The best opportunities typically come from selecting the right building early or negotiating correctly in later phases.
In short: new construction is not automatically a good investment—it becomes one only with building-level analysis and disciplined entry pricing.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/independent-new-construction-condo-reviews/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/beyond-clickbait-real-insights-into-miamis-luxury-condo-market/
Why is buying a Miami condo riskier than buyers think?
Buying a Miami condo is often riskier than buyers expect because the true risks are at the building level—not visible in the listing price. Many buyers focus on finishes and views, while overlooking HOA reserves, insurance exposure, and potential special assessments. In reality, two identical units in different buildings can perform completely differently over time. Rising HOA fees and stricter regulations are also increasing the true cost of ownership, especially in older buildings. Liquidity can be affected by factors like financial health, rental policies, and ongoing repairs. The key risk is not the condo itself—but buying into the wrong building without proper due diligence.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/miami-condo-market-risks/
What are Miami's Safest Areas?
Which Miami Areas Still offer Great Value (Budget Friendly alternatives to Coral Gables and Pinecrest)
If you’re looking for better value than Coral Gables or Pinecrest, the answer (in true Siddons style) is not “go cheaper”—it’s go one layer outside the obvious markets.
The strongest value plays are:
- Schenley Park → closest substitute to Coral Gables at ~20% discount while maintaining similar character and location
- Biltmore Heights → almost identical feel to the Gables but ~25–30% cheaper on a $/SF basis
- Glenvar Heights → central location with larger lots and ~25% pricing advantage vs South Miami/Gables
- Baptist / Galloway (Kendall) → Pinecrest-style living (space, schools, land) at up to ~30% lower pricing
The pattern is consistent:
👉 Buyers are shifting west and slightly off-market to gain land, scale, and pricing efficiency. You don’t find value by going to a “cheaper neighborhood”—you find it by identifying adjacent micro-markets that offer the same lifestyle fundamentals without the brand premium.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/best-value-neighborhoods-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/miami-neighborhoods/
Is NOW a good time to buy in Miami?
Are Miami real estate prices going down in 2026?
No—but that’s the wrong way to look at it. Miami is not one market anymore, so prices are not moving in one direction. In 2026, the market is split into two: ultra-luxury, scarcity-driven areas (like waterfront and top-tier neighborhoods) are still holding or even rising, while mid-tier condos and oversupplied segments are flat or correcting. What we’re seeing is price divergence, not a crash—some properties are gaining value while others are quietly adjusting downward. Rising inventory and more selective buyers are putting pressure on pricing in certain segments, especially older condos or buildings with weaker fundamentals.
At the same time, global wealth and cash buyers continue to support pricing at the top end of the market. So the real answer: prices aren’t broadly dropping—they’re being repriced based on quality, location, and supply.
Should I buy a house or a condo when relocating to Miami?
The decision comes down to lifestyle first, investment second—and most relocation buyers get that backwards. If you want space, privacy, schools, and long-term family living, a single-family home in areas like Coral Gables or Coconut Grove is typically the stronger choice. If you prioritize walkability, low maintenance, and proximity to business districts, a condo in Brickell or waterfront markets makes more sense.
From an investment perspective, homes tend to be more stable, while condos are more building-dependent and cyclical. Most relocation clients underestimate how much building quality, HOA structure, and future costs impact condo performance. The right answer isn’t “house vs condo”—it’s which asset fits your lifestyle AND holds value within its micro-market.
How do I choose the right Miami neighborhood for my lifestyle?
Why are Miami condo prices so different between buildings?
Miami condo pricing varies widely because value is determined at the building level, not just by location. Two buildings next to each other can have major differences in financial health, reserves, HOA fees, and management quality. Buyers also pay premiums for better layouts, views, amenities, and newer construction—but not all “new” buildings perform equally. Factors like rental policies, upcoming assessments, and building reputation can significantly impact resale value. This is why price per square foot alone is misleading in Miami’s condo market. The real driver of value is how that specific building competes within its micro-market over time.
Sources:
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/how-to-buy-a-luxury-condo-in-miami/
https://luxlifemiamiblog.com/category/independent-new-construction-condo-reviews/
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