Beyond Clickbait: Real Insights into Miami’s Luxury Condo Market

In this episode of the Better Decisions Podcast, we sit down with Sep Niakan, broker of Black Book PropertiesBlackBook Properties and owner of Condo Black Book. Today, I’m joined by a respected peer in the Miami condo market—someone as passionate as I am about delivering transparency and real insights. Sep, a well-known voice with a website dedicated to uncovering the real trends and facts, is here to break down Miami’s luxury condo market. We’ll dive into its risks, opportunities, and get beyond the clickbait articles that often only scratch the surface (if they reveal any truth at all).

The Truth Behind the Extreme Headlines

According to UBS, Miami is one of the cities with the highest risks of being in a real estate bubble. When you read these articles there is a lot of nuance in there. In the end these articles offer a balanced view, sharing encouraging statistics while adding a cautionary note that, although the situation isn’t as dire as it might seem, the market still warrants some vigilance. The tone shifts from dramatic to a more moderate perspective. Unfortunately people just read headlines and that scares them away. Nobody reads the full article and therefore understands the full context. Miami’s market is incredibly diverse, with distinct submarkets, geographical variations, and price ranges. The luxury housing sector, often a topic for discussion, remains robust. Many articles use clickbait headlines hinting at an impending crash, yet ultimately conclude that the market is simply driven by high demand and elevated prices. However, these details are often missed as readers rush to conclusions.

 Rising HOA Fees: A Controversy That Could Benefit Us All

Rising HOA fees have become a common topic in Miami’s condo market, frequently making controversial headlines. However, Sep points out that these higher fees and stricter regulations can actually be beneficial. Previously, even similar buildings with comparable amenities often varied widely in their financial preparedness—some had reserve funds for major repairs like roof replacements, while others didn’t. Buyers often opted for buildings with lower HOA fees, a “penny-wise, pound-foolish” approach that left them vulnerable when unexpected expenses arose.

Under the new laws, all buildings must conduct a reserve study every 10 years, fully fund reserves, and make necessary adjustments each decade. This standardization allows consumers to more easily compare buildings and understand the full scope of fees and expenses. You’ll have a clear picture of monthly costs, without concerns over unexpected assessments, as condo finances become more organized and transparent. While the market may face short-term challenges due to rising HOA fees (partly to increase reserves) and special assessments, these changes ultimately ensure safer, well-maintained condos and better consumer protection for everyone.

Caution with New Construction HOA Fees

Keep in mind that HOA costs are typically higher and can change after the condo’s administration takes over. They may initially set fees lower to attract buyers, but this isn’t sustainable. Once the developer steps away and an administration team has been formed fees might go up. Always look at the amount of amenities and the amount of owners in the condo and ask yourself: Do we really need a residents-only restaurant with a private chef?

What Should HOA Fees Be Depending on the Type of Condo

Depending on the condo type expect to pay:

  • Normal HOA fees: $1-$2 per SF
  • Small Boutique Luxury condos: USD 2 to $3 per SF
  • Existing older condos (between 10 and 20 year old): $1.10 – $1.40 per SF
  • All HOA fees below $1 per SF should raise alarm bells

More importantly, how are resources being used? What are the plans, expenditures, and assessments? While an additional 20 cents might seem minor, the way it’s spent could impact you more. Older buildings may face challenges if they haven’t been well-maintained and now require extensive upkeep.

Adding Value Through Special Assessments and Reserve Funds

Many people view special assessments negatively, but it’s important to recognize the benefits they can bring. These assessments are designed to fund upgrades that enhance the competitiveness of the condo in the local market, making them a worthwhile investment. Rather than seeing them as just an expense, consider them as opportunities for improvement.

While some assessments may stem from poor management and overdue maintenance, many are intended to rejuvenate the condo, attract more buyers, and improve your overall lifestyle. Embracing these investments can lead to a more desirable living environment and potentially increase property value.

Behind the Scenes: How Top Agents Truly Earn Their Worth

You deserve a realtor who asks the right questions and understands the new construction market well enough to know exactly what to ask. Who are the developers, and what is their financial standing? Do they need financing for the project, and if so, is it secured?

It’s equally crucial to know which general contractor they’re using. What projects have they completed? How consistently do they deliver quality, and do they have a reputable track record? Key players and their relationships—both at and behind the table—matter. Are they reliable, and what do their contracts look like?  In some cases, we’ve rigorously examined and negotiated one-sided contracts to better safeguard buyers. And working with a reputable agent who regularly brings qualified buyers to developers often strengthens negotiating power.

If it’s a branded company, what’s the depth of their involvement? Are they just licensing their name, or are they ensuring that the brand’s luxury standards are evident in every detail of the property? Real value comes when a brand goes beyond a nameplate, providing actual quality. Professionals who understand these intricacies are typically in the business for the long term—not just for a quick commission.”

Beyond Clickbait: Real Insights into Miami’s Luxury Condo Market

Market Insights: What’s on the Minds of Today’s Buyers and Sellers

Buyers are often hesitant, influenced by alarmist headlines that, on closer reading, tend to be more balanced than they appear. Yet, the abundance of negative press creates uncertainty, causing many buyers to hold off. There’s also a lack of urgency in the market, partly due to limited inventory with that “fall-in-love” appeal. Properties like the A building at Park Grove stand out for their allure and are the ones that sell fast, while many condos built between 2010 and 2015 feel more generic, failing to inspire buyers.

There is demand, but choices are limited, prompting more buyers to explore new construction. Buyers want to purchase but are holding back until they find a property they truly connect with.

For sellers, this means stepping up—paint, stage, clean, and update your property to present it as a welcoming home, not just an impersonal space. Strategic updates can make a huge difference, as many buyers aren’t willing to invest the time and effort in renovations. With more competition in the market, creating a standout presentation is essential.

Sep and David’s Favorite Condos (New and Resale)

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Links to the Preferred New Construction Projects

PROJECT AREA LINKS
St Regis Sunny Isles More Info
Rivage Bal Harbour More Info
Residences at Mandarin Oriental Brickell More Info
Perigon Miami Beach More Info
1428 Brickell More Info
Casa Tua Brickell More Info
Our Top 10 New Construction Condos

Condo Market Stats for Q4 2024

With more listings available, sales are strong for high-quality properties. The dollar value hasn’t shifted much overall, except in the $10M+ range, where sales remain robust—seven properties sold above $4,000 per square foot and three above $5,000, all on the Beach. Coconut Grove recorded three of its highest sales in history this year, while six of the top ten highest Beach sales were also achieved in 2024.

The key is to work with a broker who has access to the right properties, including exclusive off-market options. This requires strong relationships and diligent searching.

CONDO SALES VOLUME
Price Range Q3 2023 Q3 2024 Change
$3M -$5M 51 60 18% UP
$3M -$5M 23 21 -9% DOWN
$3M -$5M 11 14 27% UP
ACTIVE CONDO LISTING (ON Average)
Price Range 2023 Q3 2024 Change
$3M -$5M 300 350 16% UP
$3M -$5M 250 300 20% UP
$3M -$5M 80 130 62.5% Up
AVERAGE PRICES PER SF
Price Range 2023 Q3 2024 Change
$3M -$5M $1,430 $1,400 2% Down
$3M -$5M $2,021 $2,126 5% UP
$3M -$5M $2,965 $3,430 16% UP

Schedule a Meeting with David

FAQ

These are the most commonly asked Google Real Estate Related questions

1. What are the Current Best New Condos in Miami?

If you want to hear in more details our opinions on the best new Miami new construction condos. Please read this article:Best New Construction Condos 2022-2023. 

In our opinion, the Residences at Pier Sixty-six are certainly the most interesting and unique. Already well underway this 32 Acre project will be home to the first of its kind Marina where owners will be able to anchor up vessels up to a staggering 400 ft! For specifics of this project see our independent review of this project.

Our Best Luxury Condos in Miami article will prove to be very useful to those looking to compare the existing to the new. You may also want to watch this video which shows the performance of the best Condos in Miami over the last 15 years!

WHY WORK WITH DAVID? THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW...

For all our analytics we are agents driving some very unique and advanced tech. We Provide a granular and custom experience that empower our clients with the insight and tools to understand the most complex behaviors of any local markets.

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